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Violent Crime Trends in Spring Valley, Illinois: A Decade of Low Rates Amidst Demographic Changes
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Spring Valley, Illinois, a small city with a population of 5,689 in 2022, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 33.33%, from 9 to 6 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 1.35%, from 5,613 to 5,689 residents.
Murder rates in the city have remained relatively low, with only one reported case in 2019, accounting for 0.14% of the state's murders that year. This translates to a rate of 0.18 murders per 1,000 people in 2019. In all other years from 2011 to 2022, there were no reported murders. The isolated incident in 2019 represents an anomaly rather than a trend, suggesting that homicide is not a persistent issue in the community.
Rape cases have shown some variability over the years. In 2011 and 2012, there were 0 and 2 reported cases respectively. The number fluctuated between 1 and 2 cases annually from 2014 to 2018. However, there was a significant increase to 6 cases in 2019, representing 0.13% of the state's total. This spike was followed by a decrease to 4 cases in 2020 and 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 people peaked at 1.11 in 2019 and stood at 0.70 in 2022. Despite these fluctuations, the city's contribution to the state's total rape cases has remained relatively small, never exceeding 0.13%.
Robbery incidents have been infrequent in Spring Valley. From 2011 to 2018, there were no reported robberies. The city saw its first robbery in 2019, followed by none in 2020, and then another single incident in 2022. This represents a rate of 0.18 robberies per 1,000 people in 2022, accounting for 0.01% of the state's total robberies. The low and sporadic nature of these incidents suggests that robbery is not a significant ongoing concern for the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most common violent crime in the city, but with notable fluctuations. The number of cases decreased from 9 in 2011 to a low of 1 in 2016, then rose again to 7 in 2018 and 2020, before dropping to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people varied accordingly, from a high of 1.60 in 2011 to 0.18 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's total aggravated assaults has remained low, peaking at 0.04% in 2011 and declining to 0.01% in 2022.
When examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 757 people per square mile in 2011 to 734 in 2018, violent crimes showed an overall declining trend. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest causation, as other factors likely play a role in crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that violent crime rates in Spring Valley may continue to fluctuate but are likely to remain relatively low over the next five years (up to 2029). The city may experience between 5 to 10 violent crimes annually, with aggravated assaults potentially remaining the most common type of violent offense.
In summary, Spring Valley has maintained a relatively low violent crime rate over the past decade, with some fluctuations in specific crime categories. The isolated murder in 2019 and the spike in rape cases the same year stand out as anomalies rather than indicators of a worsening trend. The city's contribution to the state's overall violent crime remains minimal, suggesting that Spring Valley is generally a safe community with occasional, isolated incidents of violent crime.
