Robbery trends in Spring Grove show minimal activity, with only one reported incident in 2022. This resulted in a robbery rate of 0.40 per 1,000 people for that year and accounted for 0.03% of the state's total robberies. The emergence of this single robbery after years of no such incidents could be viewed as an isolated event, given the city's historical lack of robbery reports.

Aggravated assault trends in the city show slight fluctuations. There were single incidents reported in 2017 and 2020, each representing a rate of 0.40 assaults per 1,000 people in their respective years. These incidents accounted for 0.02% and 0.01% of the state's total aggravated assaults in 2017 and 2020, respectively. An additional case was reported in 2022, maintaining a similar pattern. The sporadic nature of these incidents suggests they are isolated events rather than part of a consistent trend.

When examining correlations, there appears to be a weak relationship between the rare violent crime incidents and the gradual increase in median rent, which rose from $446 in 2013 to $1,049 in 2022. However, the infrequency of violent crimes makes it difficult to establish a strong correlation. The racial distribution of the city remained predominantly white (95-98%) throughout the period, with minimal changes, offering little insight into its relationship with crime trends due to the lack of diversity and low crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for Spring Grove is challenging due to the low number of incidents. However, based on the slight increase in reported incidents in recent years, a conservative estimate might suggest the city could experience 1-3 violent crimes annually by 2029. This projection assumes a continuation of the current pattern of occasional, isolated incidents rather than a significant upward trend.

In summary, Spring Grove has maintained a remarkably low violent crime rate from 2010 to 2022, with only occasional incidents reported. The most significant finding is the consistent absence of murders and the rarity of other violent crimes, even as the city experienced a moderate population decline. This trend suggests that Spring Grove remains a relatively safe community, with violent crime being an exception rather than a regular occurrence. The sporadic nature of the few reported incidents indicates that they are likely isolated events rather than symptomatic of broader criminal trends in the community.