Robbery trends in the city have been minimal, with only two incidents reported over the 13-year period. One robbery occurred in 2011 and another in 2014, each representing 0.01% of the state's total robberies in their respective years. These incidents equate to rates of approximately 0.33 and 0.31 robberies per 1,000 people in 2011 and 2014, respectively. The infrequency of robberies suggests a generally safe environment with regard to this type of crime.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of assaults fluctuated over the years, peaking at 8 incidents in 2016, which represented 0.04% of the state's total that year. This peak translates to a rate of about 2.57 assaults per 1,000 people. The trend has been inconsistent, with years of no reported assaults (2013, 2018, 2022) interspersed with years of higher incidence. The most recent data from 2022 shows zero aggravated assaults, indicating a positive trend in recent years.

Examining correlations between violent crime and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As population density decreased from 499 per square mile in 2010 to 482 in 2022, violent crime rates generally trended downward, with some fluctuations. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between median rent and violent crime rates. As median rent increased from $478 in 2013 to $681 in 2022, violent crime rates showed some increases in certain years, though this relationship is not consistently strong.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall decreasing trend, albeit with potential fluctuations. Based on the historical data, it's projected that the city may experience between 0 to 2 violent crimes annually, with aggravated assault remaining the most likely form of violent crime. However, given the small population and low crime rates, even minor incidents can cause significant percentage changes.

In summary, Spencer has maintained relatively low violent crime rates over the past decade, with notable improvements in recent years. The absence of murders and rapes in most years, coupled with infrequent robberies and a decreasing trend in aggravated assaults, paints a picture of a generally safe community. The correlation between decreasing population density and lower crime rates suggests that the city's demographic changes may be contributing to its safety profile. As the town moves forward, maintaining community-based crime prevention strategies and addressing any socioeconomic factors that might influence crime rates will be crucial in sustaining and improving upon these positive trends.