Robbery trends in Spanish Fort have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were 2 robberies reported, which increased to 5 in 2018, before decreasing to 2 in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has remained relatively low, peaking at about 0.38 per 1,000 residents in 2018 and dropping to approximately 0.12 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's robbery statistics has varied, from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.17% in 2018, and 0.15% in 2022. This suggests that while robberies have not significantly increased in proportion to population growth, they remain a persistent, albeit minor, issue.

Aggravated assault has shown the most dramatic changes among violent crimes in the city. From 11 cases in 2010, it rose to a peak of 27 in 2017, before declining to just 2 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people followed a similar pattern, peaking at about 2.12 per 1,000 residents in 2017 and dropping to approximately 0.12 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has fluctuated accordingly, from 0.18% in 2010 to a high of 0.24% in 2017, before drastically reducing to 0.02% in 2022. This significant decrease in recent years is a positive trend for public safety in the city.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 387 per square mile in 2010 to 547 in 2022, violent crime rates initially increased but then showed a marked decrease in recent years. This suggests that the city has been effective in managing crime despite growing denser. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the racial composition and crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 89% in 2013 to 80% in 2022, with corresponding increases in other racial groups, particularly the Black population rising from 7% to 8%, the overall violent crime rate has actually decreased. This indicates that demographic changes have not negatively impacted crime rates.

Applying predictive models based on recent trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Spanish Fort may see a continued decrease in violent crimes. The aggravated assault rate is expected to remain low, potentially stabilizing around 0.1 to 0.2 per 1,000 residents. Robbery rates may continue to fluctuate but are likely to remain below 0.2 per 1,000 residents. Rape incidents, given their volatility, are harder to predict but may remain at very low levels if recent trends continue. The murder rate is expected to remain at or very close to zero.

In summary, Spanish Fort has demonstrated a complex but overall improving violent crime landscape. Despite significant population growth, the city has managed to maintain low crime rates, particularly in recent years. The most striking improvements have been in aggravated assaults, while maintaining a consistent absence of murders. These trends, coupled with the city's changing demographics and increasing density, suggest that Spanish Fort has been effective in adapting its crime prevention and community safety strategies to its growing and diversifying population.