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Violent Crime Trends in South Beloit: A Decade of Fluctuations and Demographic Shifts
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
South Beloit, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2011 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total violent crimes, with a notable increase from 13 incidents in 2011 to 19 in 2022, representing a 46.15% increase. During this same period, the population decreased slightly from 10,879 in 2011 to 10,508 in 2022, a 3.41% decline.
The murder rate in the city has shown significant variability. From 2011 to 2017, there were no reported murders. However, in 2018, there was a sudden spike with 3 murders, representing 0.38% of the state's total. This anomaly was followed by no murders in 2019 and 2020, but then 1 murder each in 2021 and 2022. The murder rate per 1,000 people jumped from 0 to 0.28 in 2018, then settled at 0.10 in 2021 and 0.095 in 2022. This volatility in such a small population suggests that individual incidents can have a significant impact on the city's crime statistics.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years. The city reported 1 case in 2011, increased to 4 in 2015, dropped to zero in 2017 and 2018, and then rose again to 7 cases in 2021, before decreasing to 4 in 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.09 in 2011 to 0.68 in 2021, then decreased to 0.38 in 2022. The percentage of state rape cases attributed to the city has varied, reaching a high of 0.75% in 2021 before dropping to 0.11% in 2022. These fluctuations indicate a need for continued vigilance and support for victims.
Robbery trends show a general decline over the period. From a high of 8 cases in 2016 (0.77 per 1,000 people), robberies decreased to 2 cases in 2022 (0.19 per 1,000 people). The city's contribution to state robbery cases has remained relatively low, peaking at 0.06% in 2020 and dropping to 0.02% in 2022. This downward trend in robberies is a positive sign for public safety in the community.
Aggravated assault cases have shown more variation. The number of incidents ranged from a low of 4 in 2014 to a high of 15 in 2021. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 0.37 in 2014 to 1.47 in 2021, settling at 1.14 in 2022. The city's share of state aggravated assault cases has remained relatively small, peaking at 0.3% in 2021 and dropping to 0.09% in 2022. These fluctuations suggest a need for ongoing community-based violence prevention efforts.
There appears to be a correlation between the city's racial composition and violent crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 87% in 2013 to 81% in 2022, there was a general increase in violent crimes. Concurrently, the Hispanic population increased from 8% to 11%, and the percentage of residents identifying as two or more races grew from 1% to 4%. This demographic shift coincided with the overall increase in violent crimes, suggesting a potential relationship between changing community dynamics and crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), South Beloit may see a slight increase in overall violent crimes. The murder rate is likely to remain low but unpredictable due to the small population size. Rape incidents may continue to fluctuate but could stabilize around 4-5 cases per year. Robbery rates are expected to remain low, possibly decreasing further. Aggravated assaults may continue to be the most common violent crime, potentially increasing to around 18-20 cases per year.
In conclusion, South Beloit has experienced varied trends in violent crime over the past decade. While some categories like robbery have shown improvement, others such as aggravated assault have seen increases. The city's changing demographics appear to correlate with these crime trends, highlighting the importance of community-based approaches to crime prevention and social integration as the population continues to diversify.
