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Violent Crime Trends in South Amboy: A Decade of Fluctuation and Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
South Amboy, located in New Jersey, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, alongside steady population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased from 17 to 12, representing a 29.4% reduction. During the same period, the population increased from 8,501 to 9,336, a growth of 9.8%.
Murder rates in the city have remained consistently low, with only one reported case in 2020. This translates to a rate of 0.11 murders per 1,000 people in 2020, compared to zero in all other years. The single murder in 2020 represented 0.43% of the state's total, an unusually high percentage for a city of this size. This isolated incident does not indicate a broader trend but rather an anomaly in an otherwise murder-free environment.
Rape incidents have shown variability over the years. The city reported 2 cases in 2010, dropping to zero in 2011, and fluctuating between 0 and 2 cases annually thereafter. In 2022, there was 1 reported rape, representing a rate of 0.11 per 1,000 people and 0.15% of the state's total. The percentage of state rapes attributable to the city has varied widely, peaking at 1.12% in 2021 before dropping significantly in 2022.
Robbery trends show a general decline. In 2010, there were 4 robberies (0.47 per 1,000 people), representing 0.05% of the state's total. By 2022, this had decreased to 1 robbery (0.11 per 1,000 people), accounting for 0.04% of the state's total. The city experienced several years with no reported robberies between 2017 and 2021, indicating an overall improvement in this category of violent crime.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. In 2010, there were 11 cases (1.29 per 1,000 people), representing 0.13% of the state's total. This figure remained relatively stable, with 10 cases reported in 2022 (1.07 per 1,000 people), accounting for 0.18% of the state's total. The consistency in aggravated assault numbers, despite population growth, suggests a slight improvement in the per capita rate over time.
There appears to be a correlation between the city's changing racial demographics and violent crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 78% in 2013 to 61% in 2022, and the Hispanic population increased from 15% to 24% during the same period, there was a general downward trend in violent crimes. This suggests that the demographic shift has not led to an increase in violent crime, contrary to some common misconceptions.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continuation of the overall downward trend. Based on the historical data and current trajectories, we project that the total number of violent crimes could decrease to around 8-10 annually by 2029. This prediction assumes that current socio-economic conditions and law enforcement strategies remain relatively stable.
In summary, South Amboy has shown resilience in managing violent crime rates despite population growth. The most significant improvements have been in robbery rates, while aggravated assault remains the primary concern. The changing demographic landscape has not negatively impacted crime rates, suggesting effective community integration and law enforcement strategies. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining focus on preventing aggravated assaults while building on the successes in other areas of violent crime prevention will be crucial for ensuring public safety.
