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Violent Crime Trends in Somerset, Texas: A Decade of Declining Incidents in a Small Community
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Somerset, Texas, a small municipality with a population of 3,142 as of 2022, has experienced notable changes in both its violent crime rates and population over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased significantly from 10 to 2, representing an 80% reduction. During the same period, the population declined from 3,764 to 3,142, a decrease of about 16.5%. This reduction in both population and crime has reshaped the city's safety profile.
Murder trends in Somerset have remained exceptionally low. Between 2010 and 2022, only one murder was reported, occurring in 2020. This single incident represented 0.06% of the state's murders that year. With a population of approximately 3,009 in 2020, this translates to a murder rate of 0.33 per 1,000 residents for that year. The absence of murders in other years indicates an overall safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape incidents in Somerset have been infrequent, with only two reported cases: one in 2010 and another in 2022. In 2010, the rape case represented 0.02% of the state's total, while in 2022, it accounted for 0.01%. The rape rate per 1,000 residents was approximately 0.27 in 2010 and 0.32 in 2022. Despite the slight increase in rate, the rarity of these incidents suggests they are isolated events rather than a persistent trend.
Robbery occurrences have been sporadic and low in number. The city reported 3 robberies in 2010, 1 in 2013, and 1 in 2017. No robberies were reported in the other years, including 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents was highest in 2010 at 0.80, decreasing to 0.29 in 2013 and 0.30 in 2017. The percentage of state robberies remained at or below 0.01% throughout the period, indicating that Somerset contributes minimally to the state's overall robbery statistics.
Aggravated assault has been the most common violent crime in the city, though numbers have generally decreased over time. In 2010, there were 6 cases, which declined to 1 case in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.59 in 2010 to 0.32 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases has remained low, consistently at or below 0.01% of the state total.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates in Somerset. As the population density decreased from 1,884 per square mile in 2010 to 1,572 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate also declined. This suggests that lower population density may contribute to reduced violent crime incidence in the city.
The racial demographics of Somerset show a strong Hispanic majority, consistently representing over 70% of the population throughout the studied period. While there isn't a clear correlation between racial distribution and violent crime trends, the stability of the demographic makeup coincides with the generally low and decreasing violent crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the current trends, it's projected that violent crime rates in Somerset will likely remain low over the next five years, potentially stabilizing at around 1-3 incidents per year by 2029. This forecast assumes that current socio-economic conditions and community factors remain relatively constant.
In conclusion, Somerset has demonstrated a positive trend in reducing violent crime over the past decade. The city's consistently low contribution to state crime statistics, coupled with its decreasing population density, suggests a relatively safe living environment. While isolated incidents occur, the overall trajectory points towards maintained low levels of violent crime in the coming years, positioning Somerset as a community with improving safety metrics.
