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Violent Crime Trends in Shelbina, Missouri: A Study of Stability and Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Shelbina, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, with a notable increase from 4 incidents in 2010 to 6 incidents in 2022, representing a 50% increase. During this same timeframe, the population grew from 1,986 in 2010 to 2,247 in 2022, a 13.14% increase.
The murder rate in the city has remained consistently at zero throughout the observed period from 2010 to 2022. This stability in the absence of murders is particularly noteworthy given the population growth. The murder rate per 1,000 people has remained at 0, and the city has consistently contributed 0% to the state's murder statistics. This absence of murders speaks positively to the city's safety record in this most serious category of violent crime.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some variation over time. From no reported cases in 2010 and 2011, the number rose to 4 in 2012, representing 0.34% of the state's rape cases that year. After a period of no reported cases from 2013 to 2014, the city saw 1 rape incident in 2015 and 2016 (0.05% of state cases each year), increasing to 2 incidents in 2017, 2021, and 2022 (0.09% of state cases each year). The rape rate per 1,000 people increased from 0 in 2010 to 0.89 in 2022, indicating a concerning upward trend despite the small numbers.
Robbery incidents have remained consistently at zero throughout the observed period from 2010 to 2022. Like the murder rate, this stability is notable given the population growth and suggests effective prevention or absence of conditions conducive to robberies in the city.
Aggravated assault has shown the most significant fluctuations among violent crimes in the city. From 4 incidents in 2010 and 2011 (0.03% of state cases), it dropped to 1 in 2012 (0.01% of state cases), then to 0 in 2013 and 2014. There was an increase to 1 incident in 2015 (0.01% of state cases), 2 in 2016 (0.01% of state cases), peaking at 6 incidents in 2017 and 2021 (0.03% and 0.04% of state cases respectively), before decreasing to 4 incidents in 2022 (0.02% of state cases). The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated from 2.01 in 2010 to 1.78 in 2022, showing an overall slight decrease despite the variations.
A notable correlation exists between the increase in violent crime incidents and population growth. As the population density increased from 849 per square mile in 2010 to 961 in 2022, there was a corresponding rise in total violent crime incidents. Additionally, the median rent increased significantly from $486 in 2013 to $863 in 2022, which coincided with the overall increase in violent crime incidents, particularly rape and aggravated assault.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential continuation of the upward trend in rape incidents, possibly reaching 3 to 4 annual cases. Aggravated assaults may stabilize around 4 to 5 incidents per year. The total violent crime incidents could potentially reach 8 to 10 annually by 2029 if current trends persist.
In summary, Shelbina has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape. While maintaining a commendable record of zero murders and robberies, the city has seen concerning increases in rape and fluctuations in aggravated assault. These trends, coupled with population growth and rising median rent, suggest a need for targeted interventions to address specific violent crime categories and maintain the city's overall safety as it continues to grow and develop.
