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Violent Crime Trends in Shavano Park, Texas: A Small City's Safety Profile
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Shavano Park, located in Texas, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. With a population of 5,793 in 2022 and covering an area of 3.29 square miles, this small city has experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates over the years. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 0 to 4, while the population grew from 5,046 to 5,793, representing a 14.8% increase.
The murder rate in the city has remained exceptionally low throughout the observed period. Only one murder was recorded in 2011 and another in 2021, representing 0.12% and 0.06% of the state's total murders in those years, respectively. With such infrequent occurrences, it's challenging to establish a clear trend. However, the murder rate per 1,000 people was approximately 0.20 in 2011 and 0.17 in 2021, showing a slight decrease relative to population growth.
Rape incidents in the city have been consistently reported as zero from 2010 to 2022, with the exception of 2013 when data was not available. This absence of reported rapes suggests either effective prevention measures or potential underreporting issues. The consistent zero figures make it impossible to calculate meaningful trends or percentages of state totals.
Robbery trends show some fluctuation over the years. The city experienced no robberies for most years, with notable exceptions in 2015 (2 robberies), 2017 (1 robbery), 2020 (2 robberies), 2021 (2 robberies), and 2022 (1 robbery). These incidents represented a small fraction of the state's total, ranging from 0.01% to 0.02%. The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2015 at 0.41 and decreased to 0.17 by 2022, indicating a downward trend relative to population growth.
Aggravated assault cases have shown variability. The city reported 3 cases in 2013, none in 2014-2017, 2 cases each in 2018 and 2019, 1 case in 2020 and 2021, and 3 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated, with the highest being 0.62 in 2013 and 0.52 in 2022. The percentage of state total remained consistently low, never exceeding 0.01%.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak positive relationship between population growth and the overall number of violent crimes. As the population increased from 5,046 in 2010 to 5,793 in 2022, violent crimes rose from 0 to 4. However, the correlation is not strong enough to suggest a direct causal relationship.
Applying predictive models based on the limited data available, it's projected that by 2029, the city may experience a slight increase in violent crimes, potentially reaching 5-6 annual incidents. This prediction assumes a continuation of current trends and stable environmental factors.
In summary, Shavano Park has maintained relatively low violent crime rates despite population growth. The most significant changes have been observed in robbery and aggravated assault incidents, though these remain infrequent. The city's ability to maintain low crime rates while experiencing population growth suggests effective law enforcement and community safety measures. However, the recent slight uptick in violent crimes warrants continued vigilance and proactive community safety initiatives.
