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Violent Crime Trends in Sergeant Bluff, Iowa: A Decade of Stability Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Sergeant Bluff, located in Iowa, presents an interesting case study for violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, starting at 9 in 2010 and ending at 10 in 2020, representing an 11.11% increase. During this same period, the population grew significantly from 6,633 in 2010 to 7,914 in 2020, a 19.31% increase.
Examining murder trends, the data shows no reported cases of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2020. This consistent zero murder rate, even as the population grew, indicates a remarkably safe environment in terms of the most severe form of violent crime. The percentage of state crime for murder remained at 0% throughout, suggesting that the city has maintained an exemplary record in this category compared to the rest of Iowa.
Rape incidents in the city were sporadic and infrequent. Only two years in the dataset showed reported rapes: one case in 2012 and another in 2015. This translates to rates of 0.15 and 0.13 per 1,000 people respectively. The percentage of state crime for rape was 0.15% in 2012 and 0.11% in 2015, with all other years showing 0%. These figures suggest that while not entirely absent, sexual violence remains a rare occurrence in the community.
Robbery trends show minimal activity, with only two reported incidents over the decade. One robbery occurred in 2013 and another in 2017, representing 0.12% and 0.09% of the state's robberies in those years respectively. The robbery rate per 1,000 people was 0.15 in 2013 and 0.13 in 2017. The infrequency of robberies, despite population growth, indicates a generally low risk for this type of crime in the area.
Aggravated assault emerges as the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of aggravated assaults fluctuated over the years, peaking at 15 cases in 2012 and reaching a low of 7 cases in 2015. The rate per 1,000 people varied accordingly, from a high of 2.25 in 2012 to a low of 0.93 in 2015. The city's share of state aggravated assaults ranged from 0.13% to 0.32% during this period. Despite these fluctuations, the overall trend shows a slight decrease, with 9 cases (1.11 per 1,000) in 2010 compared to 10 cases (1.26 per 1,000) in 2020.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,231 per square mile in 2010 to 2,662 per square mile in 2020, the violent crime rate per 1,000 people slightly decreased from 1.36 to 1.26. This suggests that the growing population did not lead to a proportional increase in violent crime.
Applying predictive models based on the historical data, we can forecast that violent crime rates in Sergeant Bluff are likely to remain relatively stable over the next five years (up to 2029). The total number of violent crimes may fluctuate between 8 and 12 annually, with aggravated assaults continuing to be the primary contributor. The per capita crime rate is expected to hover around 1.2 to 1.5 per 1,000 residents, assuming the population continues its growth trend.
In summary, Sergeant Bluff has maintained a relatively low and stable violent crime rate despite significant population growth. The absence of murders, infrequent occurrences of rape and robbery, and a slight downward trend in aggravated assaults paint a picture of a community that has effectively managed public safety concerns while expanding. The city's consistent underrepresentation in state crime statistics across all violent crime categories further underscores its status as a comparatively safe urban area within Iowa.
