Robbery trends show a more concerning pattern. The number of robberies increased from 1 in 2010 to 4 in 2022, with a peak of 10 incidents in 2017. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.168 in 2010 to 0.300 in 2022, indicating an increase in risk even when accounting for population growth. The city's contribution to the state's total robberies also increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022, peaking at 0.04% in 2017. This suggests that robbery has become a more significant concern for the community over time.

Aggravated assault cases have seen the most substantial increase among violent crimes. The number of incidents rose from 6 in 2010 to 17 in 2022, peaking at 18 in 2016. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.006 in 2010 to 1.274 in 2022, indicating that the risk of aggravated assault has grown faster than the population. The city's contribution to the state's total aggravated assaults has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.03% over the years. This trend suggests that aggravated assault has become a more pressing issue for the community.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in violent crimes appears to have a strong positive correlation with population density, which rose from 1,189 per square mile in 2010 to 2,664 in 2022. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the rise in violent crimes and changes in racial demographics. The percentage of Black residents increased from 7% in 2013 to 22% in 2022, while the percentage of White residents decreased from 52% to 32% over the same period. These demographic shifts coincide with the overall increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults and robberies.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued increase in overall violent crimes. Based on the current trends, we can expect the number of violent crimes to reach approximately 35-40 incidents per year by 2029. Aggravated assaults are likely to continue to be the most prevalent violent crime, potentially reaching 22-25 cases annually. Robberies may stabilize around 5-6 incidents per year, while rape cases could fluctuate between 5-7 annually. Murder rates are expected to remain low, with possibly one incident every 2-3 years.

In conclusion, Selma has experienced a significant increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults and robberies, which have outpaced its rapid population growth. The changing demographics and increasing population density appear to be strongly correlated with these crime trends. While the city remains relatively safe in terms of murders and has shown some improvement in rape rates relative to population growth, the overall violent crime situation warrants attention. As the community continues to grow and evolve, local authorities may need to implement targeted strategies to address the rising violent crime rates, particularly focusing on prevention and community engagement to mitigate the increasing trends in aggravated assaults and robberies.