Robbery cases in the city have seen a substantial decline. The number of robberies dropped from 71 in 2011 to 11 in 2022, an 84.5% decrease. The robbery rate per 1,000 people fell from 3.30 to 0.64, an 80.6% reduction. The city's share of the state's total robberies also decreased from 1.61% to 0.84%, indicating that Selma's improvement in this category outpaced the state's overall trend.

Aggravated assault cases have shown a significant decrease as well. The number of incidents fell from 243 in 2011 to 108 in 2022, a 55.6% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 11.28 to 6.26, a 44.5% drop. However, the city's contribution to the state's total aggravated assaults decreased less dramatically, from 2.40% to 0.95%, suggesting that while Selma improved, it did so at a rate closer to the state average for this crime category.

A strong correlation exists between the overall violent crime trend and the city's changing demographics. As the population declined by 19.9% from 2011 to 2022, the total violent crime incidents decreased by 60.1%. This suggests that factors beyond population change, such as improved law enforcement strategies or community initiatives, may have contributed to the crime reduction.

Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the racial composition of the city and crime rates. The percentage of Black residents increased from 74% in 2013 to 73% in 2022, while the White population decreased from 22% to 21% over the same period. This slight shift in racial demographics coincided with the overall decrease in violent crime, though it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation, and other socioeconomic factors likely play a role.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued overall decline in violent crime rates if current trends persist. However, the murder rate may continue to be a concern, potentially increasing further unless targeted interventions are implemented.

In summary, Selma has made significant strides in reducing overall violent crime over the past decade, with substantial decreases in robbery, rape, and aggravated assault rates. However, the increasing murder rate remains a critical issue that warrants attention. The city's changing demographics and population decline have coincided with these crime trends, suggesting a complex interplay of factors influencing public safety in Selma. As the city moves forward, addressing the root causes of violent crime, particularly homicides, while maintaining the positive trends in other categories, will be crucial for ensuring the continued safety and well-being of its residents.