Robbery Trends Remain Low and Variable Robbery trends in the city have been variable but generally low. The number of robberies peaked at 15 in 2017 but decreased to 10 by 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people declined from 0.31 in 2010 to 0.22 in 2022, showing a slight improvement relative to population growth. The city's percentage of state robberies has remained consistently low, ranging between 0.02% and 0.05%, suggesting that Schertz contributes minimally to Texas's overall robbery statistics.

Aggravated Assault: Most Prevalent but Improving Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of incidents peaked at 71 in 2011 but decreased to 44 by 2022. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people declined from 1.53 in 2010 to 0.96 in 2022, indicating a significant improvement relative to population growth. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has generally decreased, from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, suggesting a positive trend compared to statewide figures.

Correlations Between Demographics and Crime Rates Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 901 per square mile in 2010 to 1,408 in 2022, violent crime rates generally decreased, suggesting that the city has managed growth effectively in terms of crime prevention. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the changing racial demographics and crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 59% in 2013 to 47% in 2022, and the Hispanic population increased from 28% to 34% during the same period, violent crime rates fluctuated but ultimately decreased, indicating that demographic changes have not led to increased crime.

Future Projections for Violent Crime Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it is forecasted that violent crime in Schertz will continue to fluctuate but generally remain low over the next five years (up to 2029). The murder rate is expected to stay near zero, with occasional single incidents. Rape and robbery rates are predicted to stabilize around their current levels, while aggravated assault may see a slight decrease. The overall violent crime rate per 1,000 people is projected to continue its downward trend, potentially reaching around 1.2 by 2029, assuming population growth continues at a similar pace.

Conclusion: Effective Management of Crime Amidst Growth In conclusion, Schertz has demonstrated a commendable ability to manage violent crime rates despite significant population growth. The city's contribution to state crime statistics remains minimal across all categories of violent crime. The observed trends suggest that Schertz has implemented effective strategies for maintaining public safety while accommodating rapid expansion, positioning it as a relatively safe and growing community within Texas.