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Violent Crime Trends in Savanna, Illinois: A Mississippi River City's Evolving Safety Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Savanna, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. With a population of 5,155 in 2022, this small city has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates over the years. From 2013 to 2019, the total number of violent crimes increased from 17 to 25, representing a 47% increase. During this same period, the population decreased slightly from 5,247 to 5,101, a 2.8% decline.
Murder rates in the city have remained consistently low, with no reported cases from 2013 to 2019. This stability is notable given the population changes, maintaining a murder rate of 0 per 1,000 residents throughout the observed period. The percentage of state murder cases attributable to Savanna has also remained at 0%, indicating that the city has not contributed to Illinois' overall murder statistics.
Rape incidents in the city have shown an upward trend. In 2014, there was 1 reported case, increasing to 4 cases by 2019. This represents a 300% increase over five years. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.19 in 2014 to 0.78 in 2019. The city's percentage of state rape cases also increased from 0.03% to 0.09% during this period, suggesting a growing concern relative to statewide figures.
Robbery trends have been inconsistent. There were no reported robberies in 2013, 2014, and 2016. However, in 2015, there was 1 case, and another single case in 2019. This fluctuation makes it difficult to establish a clear trend, but it does indicate that robbery is not a persistent issue in the city. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents in 2019 was 0.20, and the city's contribution to state robbery cases was 0.01%.
Aggravated assault has shown the most significant increase among violent crimes. In 2013, there were 16 cases, which dropped to 0 in 2014, but then steadily increased to 20 cases by 2019. This represents a 25% increase from 2013 to 2019. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 3.05 in 2013 to 3.92 in 2019. The city's percentage of state aggravated assault cases increased from 0.16% to 0.07% during this period, indicating a growing local issue despite a decrease in the city's contribution to state figures.
There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crimes and changes in racial demographics. From 2013 to 2019, the white population percentage decreased slightly from 96% to 92%, while the Hispanic population increased from 1% to 4%. This diversification coincided with the overall increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now), we can anticipate a continued increase in overall violent crimes if current trends persist. Aggravated assault is likely to remain the most prevalent violent crime, potentially reaching 25-30 cases annually by 2029. Rape incidents may continue to rise, possibly reaching 6-7 cases per year. Robbery is expected to remain low but may see occasional incidents. Murder rates are predicted to remain at or near zero, barring any significant changes in city dynamics.
In summary, Savanna has experienced a notable increase in violent crimes, particularly in aggravated assaults and rapes, despite a slight population decline. The city's changing demographics may be a factor in these trends. While murder rates remain consistently low, the rise in other violent crimes suggests a need for targeted public safety measures. The projected increase in violent crimes over the next five years underscores the importance of proactive community policing and crime prevention strategies in this small Illinois city.
