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Violent Crime Trends in Satsuma, Alabama: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Satsuma, located in Alabama, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. With a population of 6,684 in 2022 and covering 7.35 square miles, this small city has experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates over the years. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes varied significantly, peaking at 16 incidents in 2018 and dropping to a low of 2 in 2017. Over this period, the population grew modestly from 6,545 in 2011 to 6,684 in 2022, an increase of about 2.1%.
Examining murder rates, Satsuma reported only one incident in 2012, accounting for 0.39% of the state's murders that year. This translates to a rate of 0.15 murders per 1,000 residents. In all other years from 2011 to 2022, no murders were reported, indicating an overall very low murder rate for the city.
Rape incidents in the city were sporadic and low in number. The city reported 2 cases each in 2013 and 2014, representing 0.17% and 0.16% of the state's total rapes respectively. This equates to rates of 0.32 and 0.31 rapes per 1,000 residents in those years. No rapes were reported in other years, suggesting that sexual violence is not a persistent issue in the community.
Robbery trends show minimal occurrences. The city reported 2 robberies in 2012 and 2018, accounting for 0.05% and 0.07% of the state's robberies respectively. These incidents translate to rates of 0.31 and 0.30 robberies per 1,000 residents. The infrequency of robberies indicates that this type of crime is not a major concern for the city.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Satsuma. The number of incidents fluctuated over the years, with a high of 14 cases in 2015 and 2018, representing 0.12% of the state's aggravated assaults in both years. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 2.27 in 2015. In 2022, there were 4 aggravated assaults, showing a decrease to 0.60 per 1,000 residents and accounting for 0.04% of the state's total.
Analyzing correlations, there appears to be a weak relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 890 per square mile in 2011 to 909 in 2022, violent crime rates fluctuated without a clear pattern. The racial composition of the city, predominantly white (78% in 2022), doesn't show a strong correlation with crime rates. However, the slight increase in diversity over the years, with the Black population growing from 10% to 15% between 2013 and 2022, coincides with some fluctuations in crime rates, though a causal relationship cannot be established.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that violent crime rates in Satsuma will likely remain low but may continue to fluctuate over the next five years (up to 2029). The city may experience between 5 to 10 violent crimes annually, with aggravated assaults likely to remain the most common type of violent crime.
In conclusion, Satsuma demonstrates a relatively stable and low violent crime environment. The sporadic nature of serious crimes like murder and rape, coupled with low rates of robbery, suggests that the city maintains a generally safe atmosphere for its residents. The fluctuations in aggravated assaults, while noteworthy, do not indicate a persistent upward trend. As the city continues to grow and diversify, maintaining community-oriented policing and social programs could help ensure that crime rates remain low in the coming years.
