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Violent Crime Trends in San Fernando, California: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Densely Populated City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
San Fernando, located in California, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total violent crimes, with a notable increase from 63 incidents in 2010 to 93 in 2022, representing a 47.6% rise. During this same period, the population grew modestly from 23,628 in 2010 to 23,958 in 2022, a 1.4% increase.
Murder rates in the city have shown significant volatility. The city recorded zero murders in 2010, 2011, 2013, 2015, and 2018. However, it experienced peaks of 3 murders in 2012 and 2017, representing 0.19% and 0.2% of the state's total murders respectively. In 2022, there was 1 murder, accounting for 0.06% of California's murders. The murder rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.12 in 2017 and stood at 0.04 in 2022, indicating a decrease in the murder rate relative to population growth.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years. The city reported no rapes in 2010 and 2011, with a peak of 9 cases in 2017 (0.07% of state total). In 2022, there were 3 reported rapes (0.03% of state total). The rape rate per 1,000 residents reached its highest at 0.37 in 2017 and decreased to 0.13 in 2022, showing a declining trend in recent years relative to population.
Robbery trends show more consistency but with some fluctuations. The city recorded 24 robberies in 2010, peaking at 38 in 2016 (0.08% of state total), and reported 36 in 2022 (0.09% of state total). The robbery rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.02 in 2010 to 1.50 in 2022, indicating a rise in robbery incidents relative to population growth.
Aggravated assault cases have shown an overall increase. The city reported 39 cases in 2010, peaking at 85 in 2016 (0.1% of state total), and recorded 53 cases in 2022 (0.05% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 1.65 in 2010 to 2.21 in 2022, suggesting an upward trend in aggravated assaults relative to population growth.
A strong correlation exists between the Hispanic population percentage and violent crime rates. As the Hispanic population increased from 88% in 2013 to 92% in 2022, violent crimes also showed an overall upward trend. Additionally, there appears to be a relationship between population density and crime rates, with both showing general increases over the observed period.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued modest increase in overall violent crimes. Based on current trends, robberies and aggravated assaults are likely to see the most significant increases, while murder and rape rates may remain relatively stable or show slight fluctuations.
In summary, San Fernando has experienced a notable increase in violent crimes over the past decade, particularly in robberies and aggravated assaults. The rise in crime rates outpaces population growth, suggesting other factors, such as demographic shifts and population density, may be influencing these trends. As the city continues to evolve, addressing these crime trends will be crucial for ensuring community safety and well-being.
