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Violent Crime Trends in Samson, Alabama: A Decade of Improvement in a Small City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Samson, Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. This small city, with a population of 4,391 in 2022, has experienced fluctuations in both its population and crime rates. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased from 7 to 4, representing a 42.86% reduction. During this same period, the population decreased by 14.69%, from 5,147 to 4,391 residents.
The murder rate in the city has remained consistently low, with only one reported case in 2013. This single incident represented 0.44% of the state's murders that year. When considering the population, this translates to a rate of 0.21 murders per 1,000 people in 2013. In all other years for which data is available, there were no reported murders, indicating an overall safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some variation over the years. The highest number of reported rapes was 3 in 2012, representing 0.36% of the state's total. This translates to a rate of 0.59 rapes per 1,000 people. The rate decreased to 0.21 per 1,000 in 2013 and further to 0.20 per 1,000 in 2014 and 2015. By 2016, it slightly increased to 0.42 per 1,000. Since 2021, there have been no reported rapes, suggesting a positive trend in recent years.
Robbery incidents have been infrequent in the city. The highest number of robberies reported was 2 per year in 2011, 2012, and 2013, representing 0.05% to 0.06% of the state's total. This translates to a rate of 0.39 robberies per 1,000 people in those years. Since 2014, there have been no reported robberies, indicating a significant improvement in this area of violent crime.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of assaults peaked in 2016 with 25 incidents, representing 0.23% of the state's total and a rate of 5.21 assaults per 1,000 people. This was a significant increase from 7 incidents (1.36 per 1,000) in 2010. However, there has been a substantial decrease in recent years, with only 4 incidents reported in 2022, representing 0.04% of the state's total and a rate of 0.91 per 1,000 people. This marks an 84% decrease in aggravated assaults from the 2016 peak.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,422 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,213 in 2022, there was a general trend of decreasing violent crime. Additionally, there seems to be a weak correlation between median rent increases and crime reduction, with rent rising from $484 in 2013 to $629 in 2022 as overall violent crime decreased.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the overall violent crime rate to continue its downward trajectory if current conditions persist. Aggravated assaults, being the most common violent crime, are likely to stabilize at around 3-5 incidents per year. The city may experience periods with no reported murders, rapes, or robberies, continuing the trend observed in recent years.
In summary, Samson has shown a generally improving trend in violent crime rates over the past decade, particularly in recent years. The significant reduction in aggravated assaults, coupled with the infrequent occurrence of other violent crimes, suggests that the city has become safer over time. These trends, if maintained, indicate a positive outlook for public safety in the coming years, potentially making Samson an increasingly attractive place for residents and businesses alike.
