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Violent Crime Trends in Salisbury, Missouri: A Decade of Stability in a Shrinking City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Salisbury, Missouri, a small city with a population of 1,772 in 2022, offers an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Spanning just 1.34 square miles, this compact community has experienced both population decline and fluctuating crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes ranged from 0 to 3 incidents annually, while the population decreased by 14.56% during the same period.
The murder rate in Salisbury has remained consistently at zero throughout the recorded period from 2010 to 2020. This absence of murders, despite population changes, indicates a stable environment in terms of the most severe form of violent crime. The murder rate per 1,000 people has consequently remained at 0, and the city has not contributed to the state's murder statistics during this time.
Similarly, rape incidents have not been reported in the available data for Salisbury from 2010 to 2020. The absence of reported rapes, coupled with the city's small population, suggests either a very low incidence rate or potential underreporting. The rape rate per 1,000 people and the city's contribution to state rape statistics have both remained at 0% throughout the observed period.
Robbery trends in the city follow the same pattern as murder and rape, with no reported incidents from 2010 to 2020. This consistent absence of robberies, despite population fluctuations, indicates a relatively safe environment in terms of property-related violent crime. The robbery rate per 1,000 people and the city's share of state robbery statistics have remained at 0% throughout the decade.
Aggravated assault has been the primary form of violent crime in Salisbury. The number of aggravated assaults fluctuated between 0 and 3 incidents per year from 2010 to 2020. The highest number of incidents (3) occurred in 2014, representing a rate of 1.46 per 1,000 people. In 2020, there was 1 incident, equating to 0.52 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has remained consistently low, ranging from 0% to 0.02% over the years.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak relationship between population density and aggravated assault rates. For instance, in 2014, when the population density was 1,530 per square mile, the city experienced its highest number of aggravated assaults (3). However, this correlation is not consistent across all years, suggesting other factors may play a more significant role in violent crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging due to the limited data and small number of incidents. However, based on the historical data, it's reasonable to expect that Salisbury will continue to experience low levels of violent crime, with aggravated assault remaining the most likely form of violent crime to occur, potentially averaging 1-2 incidents per year.
In summary, Salisbury has maintained a relatively low violent crime rate over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The absence of murders, rapes, and robberies, combined with the low and fluctuating rates of aggravated assault, suggests a generally safe community. However, the small population size means that even a single incident can significantly impact crime rates. As the city moves forward, maintaining community engagement and preventive measures will be crucial in preserving its low violent crime profile.
