Robbery statistics show minimal occurrences, with only three reported incidents over the 13-year period: one each in 2011, 2015, and 2016. These incidents represented 0.03% of the state's robberies in their respective years. The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.14 in 2015 and 2016. The infrequency of robberies suggests that this type of crime is not a significant concern for the city.

Aggravated assault has shown the most notable increase among violent crimes in the city. In 2010, there were 7 cases (0.09% of state total), which rose to 13 cases in 2022 (0.07% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.98 in 2010 to 1.80 in 2022, representing an 83.67% increase. This trend indicates that aggravated assault has become a more prevalent issue in the community over time.

There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crime, particularly aggravated assault, and the rise in median rent. Median rent in the city increased significantly from $674 in 2013 to $1,549 in 2022, a 129.82% increase. This sharp rise in housing costs may contribute to economic stress, potentially leading to increased aggravated assaults.

Additionally, there is a noticeable correlation between the slight decrease in the white population percentage (from 88% in 2013 to 81% in 2022) and the increase in violent crimes. As the city has become marginally more diverse, with increases in Hispanic and multiracial populations, the overall violent crime rate has risen. However, it's crucial to note that correlation does not imply causation, and these demographic changes may be coincidental to the crime trends.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029, Salida may see a continued increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults. The total number of violent crimes could potentially reach 20-25 incidents annually, with aggravated assaults possibly accounting for 18-20 of these cases. However, murder rates are likely to remain very low or at zero, while rape and robbery incidents may continue to fluctuate but remain relatively infrequent.

In conclusion, Salida has experienced a notable increase in violent crimes, primarily driven by a rise in aggravated assaults, despite its modest population growth. The city's changing demographics and significant increases in housing costs correlate with these crime trends. While Salida remains relatively safe in terms of the most severe violent crimes like murder, the growing rate of aggravated assaults warrants attention from local law enforcement and community leaders to ensure the continued safety and well-being of its residents.