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Violent Crime Trends in Rogersville, Missouri: A Decade of Growth and Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Rogersville, Missouri, a small city with a population of 9,192 in 2022, has experienced significant growth and changes in its violent crime patterns over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 8 to 11, representing a 37.5% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 7,081 to 9,192, a 29.8% increase. This analysis will delve into the specific trends of violent crimes in the city and their implications.
The murder rate in the city has remained relatively low and stable over the years. There were only two recorded murders, one in 2010 and another in 2012, each representing 0.3% and 0.32% of the state's total murders, respectively. With no murders reported in most years, the per capita rate has effectively decreased as the population has grown. This suggests that despite population growth, the city has maintained a low incidence of the most severe violent crime.
Rape cases have shown a concerning upward trend in recent years. From 2010 to 2015, there were no reported rapes. However, in 2015 and 2016, one case was reported each year, representing 0.05% of the state's total. The most significant spike occurred in 2022, with four reported cases, accounting for 0.19% of the state's total. This increase is particularly noteworthy given the city's small size, with the rate per 1,000 people rising from 0 to 0.44 in 2022.
Robbery has been an infrequent occurrence in the city. Only two incidents were reported over the 13-year period: one in 2011 and another in 2020. These represented 0.02% and 0.03% of the state's total robberies, respectively. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has remained extremely low, never exceeding 0.13, indicating that this form of violent crime is not a significant concern for the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most common form of violent crime in the city, showing fluctuations over the years. The number of cases rose from 7 in 2010 to a peak of 14 in 2021, before decreasing to 7 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people has varied, reaching a high of 1.55 in 2021 and dropping to 0.76 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's total aggravated assaults has ranged from 0.01% to 0.08%, with the highest percentage occurring in 2021.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,890 per square mile in 2010 to 2,454 in 2022, there was a general upward trend in violent crimes, particularly in aggravated assaults and, more recently, rapes. However, this correlation is not perfectly linear, as crime rates have fluctuated year to year.
The racial composition of the city has remained predominantly white, with the percentage decreasing slightly from 97% in 2013 to 95% in 2022. This slight diversification coincides with the increase in violent crimes, but a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further data.
Applying predictive models based on the current trends, it is estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a continued increase in violent crimes, particularly in rapes and aggravated assaults. The total number of violent crimes could potentially reach 18-20 per year, assuming population growth and other factors remain consistent.
In summary, Rogersville has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime patterns amidst significant population growth. While murder and robbery rates have remained low, the recent spike in rape cases and the fluctuating but generally increasing trend in aggravated assaults warrant attention. The city's law enforcement and community leaders should focus on addressing these specific areas of concern to ensure the safety and well-being of its growing population.
