Robbery trends show a low and inconsistent pattern. There were two robberies reported in 2014 and 2018, one in 2019, and none in the other years from 2015 to 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents ranged from 0 to 0.40, with the highest rate in 2014. The percentage of state robberies attributed to the city varied, reaching a maximum of 0.04% in 2018.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Rocky Top. The number of aggravated assaults increased from 2 in 2014 to 13 in 2022, with fluctuations in between. The highest number was recorded in 2019 with 14 incidents. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.38 in 2014 to 2.51 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assaults grew from 0.01% in 2014 to 0.06% in 2022, indicating a faster increase in the city compared to the state average.

There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, and the slight decrease in population density. As the population density decreased from 3,211 per square mile in 2014 to 3,193 in 2022, violent crimes increased. This suggests that factors other than population density may be influencing crime rates.

The racial composition of Rocky Top has remained predominantly white, with a slight decrease from 99% in 2014 to 95% in 2022. This minor shift in demographics does not seem to have a strong correlation with violent crime trends.

Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it is forecasted that by 2029 (five years from now), Rocky Top may experience a continued increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults. The total number of violent crimes could potentially reach 18-20 incidents per year, with aggravated assaults possibly accounting for 15-17 of these cases. However, murder rates are likely to remain very low, potentially zero in most years.

In summary, Rocky Top has experienced a notable increase in violent crimes from 2014 to 2022, primarily driven by a rise in aggravated assaults. Despite this increase, the overall crime rates remain relatively low for a city of its size. The sporadic nature of certain crimes like murder and rape suggests that while concerning when they occur, they are not indicative of a persistent problem. The city's law enforcement and community leaders should focus on addressing the factors contributing to the rise in aggravated assaults while maintaining the low rates of other violent crimes.