Robbery cases remained constant at 3 incidents in both 2019 and 2020. The rate per 1,000 residents showed a negligible decrease from 0.250 to 0.248 due to the slight population increase. The city's contribution to state robbery figures held steady at 0.03%, indicating that the local robbery trend aligned with statewide patterns.

Aggravated assault cases more than doubled, increasing from 7 in 2019 to 15 in 2020, a 114.3% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents jumped from 0.583 to 1.241. Despite this local surge, the city's share of state aggravated assault cases only increased from 0.03% to 0.05%, suggesting that this crime category may have seen increases across Illinois.

When examining correlations, a notable relationship emerges between the Hispanic population and violent crime rates. As the Hispanic population percentage decreased slightly from 24% in 2019 to 23% in 2021, there was a corresponding shift in crime patterns, particularly the significant decrease in rape cases and the increase in aggravated assaults. However, it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation, and many other factors likely contribute to these trends.

Applying predictive models based on the limited data available, we can cautiously forecast that by 2029, Rochelle may see a stabilization in murder and robbery rates, while rape incidents might continue to decrease. Aggravated assaults could potentially continue to rise if current trends persist, but this projection should be treated with caution due to the limited historical data.

In summary, Rochelle's violent crime landscape shows mixed trends, with significant reductions in rape offset by increases in aggravated assaults. The stability in murder and robbery rates, coupled with the city's relatively small contribution to state crime figures, suggests that Rochelle is managing certain aspects of violent crime effectively. However, the sharp rise in aggravated assaults warrants attention and potentially targeted interventions to address this specific issue.