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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Richland, Missouri, a small urban area, has experienced significant population growth from 4,100 in 2010 to 4,953 in 2022, marking a 20.8% increase. This analysis examines the violent crime trends in the city, focusing on various categories of violent offenses and their relationship to population growth and other demographic factors.
The total number of violent crimes in Richland has fluctuated over the years, with no clear consistent trend. In 2010, there were 7 violent crimes reported, and by 2022, this number decreased to 2, representing a 71.4% reduction. However, this overall decrease was not steady, with significant variations from year to year. For instance, the number of violent crimes peaked at 9 in 2013, 2014, and 2019, before dropping to zero in 2021 and then slightly increasing to 2 in 2022.
Regarding murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, Richland has maintained a consistently low rate, with zero cases reported throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This stability is particularly noteworthy given the population growth during this time. The murder rate per 1,000 people has remained at zero, and the city has not contributed to the state's murder statistics in any year.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some variability. The highest number of reported rapes was 3 in 2018, while several years (2010, 2011, 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2022) saw no reported cases. The rape rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2018 at 0.66 and was zero in the years with no reported cases. The city's contribution to the state's rape statistics has been minimal, with the highest percentage being 0.15% in 2018.
Robbery has been a rare occurrence in Richland. There were only three years with reported robberies: 2013 (2 cases), 2014 (1 case), and 2019 (1 case). The robbery rate per 1,000 people was highest in 2013 at 0.48. The city's contribution to the state's robbery statistics has been negligible, with the highest percentage being 0.04% in 2013.
Aggravated assault has been the most common violent crime in the city. The number of aggravated assaults peaked at 8 in 2019, with the lowest being zero in 2021. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people was highest in 2010 at 1.71 and lowest in 2021 at zero. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics has generally been low, with the highest percentage being 0.05% in 2010 and 2019.
When examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, a notable relationship emerges with population density. As the population density increased from 1,808 per square mile in 2010 to 2,184 per square mile in 2022, there was a general trend of decreasing violent crimes, particularly in the latter years. This suggests that the growing population density has not led to an increase in violent crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the historical data and recent trends, it's likely that Richland will continue to experience low levels of violent crime. The model suggests that the number of violent crimes may stabilize around 2-4 incidents per year, with aggravated assault remaining the most common type of violent offense. However, given the city's small size, even minor fluctuations can appear as significant percentage changes.
In conclusion, Richland has demonstrated a generally positive trend in violent crime reduction over the past decade, despite its population growth. The consistent absence of murders, low incidence of rape and robbery, and the recent decline in aggravated assaults paint a picture of a relatively safe small city. The inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates is particularly interesting and may be indicative of effective community policing or social cohesion as the city has grown. Moving forward, maintaining these low crime rates will be crucial for the continued safety and quality of life of Richland's residents.