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Violent Crime Trends in Red Lodge, Montana: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small Mountain City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Red Lodge, Montana, is a small community that has experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of violent crimes varied annually, ranging from a low of 1 in 2013 to a high of 12 in 2012. The population also saw changes, growing from 2,899 in 2010 to 3,072 in 2022, representing an overall increase of 5.97% during this period.
Regarding murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, the city has maintained an exceptionally low rate. Only one such crime was recorded in 2011, accounting for 14.29% of the state's total that year. In all other years, there were zero murders reported. This translates to a rate of 0.36 murders per 1,000 people in 2011, with no measurable rate in other years. The isolated incident in 2011 appears to be an anomaly rather than indicative of a broader trend.
Rape cases in the city have been sporadic. There were no reported rapes in most years, with exceptions in 2012 (2 cases, 0.99% of state total), 2014 (1 case, 0.36%), 2018 (2 cases, 0.69%), 2020 (1 case, 0.29%), and 2021 (3 cases, 0.74%). The highest rate was in 2021 with 1.12 rapes per 1,000 people. These figures suggest that while rape is not a consistent problem, there have been occasional spikes that warrant attention.
Robbery has been virtually non-existent in the city. Only one robbery was reported in 2011, accounting for 0.85% of the state's total. In all other years, no robberies were recorded. This indicates that robbery is not a significant concern for the community, with a rate of 0.36 robberies per 1,000 people in 2011 and zero in all other years.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of cases ranged from 1 in 2013 to 10 in 2010 and 2012. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated, with the highest being 3.45 in 2010 and the lowest being 0.35 in 2013. The percentage of state total for aggravated assaults varied, peaking at 1.19% in 2010 and dropping to 0.11% in 2013 and 2020. Despite these fluctuations, aggravated assault remains the primary violent crime concern for the community.
There appears to be a weak correlation between population density and violent crime rates. For instance, in 2017, when the population density increased to 1,082 per square mile, violent crime decreased to 6 incidents from 9 the previous year. Conversely, in 2022, with the highest population density of 1,132 per square mile, violent crime data is not available to draw a conclusion.
The racial composition of the city has remained predominantly white throughout the studied period, with a slight decrease from 96% in 2013 to 90% in 2022. This change does not appear to have a strong correlation with violent crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's challenging to forecast precise violent crime trends due to the significant annual variations. However, if current patterns persist, we might expect the total number of violent crimes to remain relatively low, likely fluctuating between 3 to 8 incidents annually over the next five years (up to 2029). Aggravated assault is likely to continue being the most common form of violent crime.
In conclusion, Red Lodge has maintained relatively low violent crime rates, with occasional spikes in specific categories. The most consistent concern is aggravated assault, while other forms of violent crime remain rare occurrences. The city's small population and stable demographic composition contribute to a generally safe environment, despite some year-to-year variations in crime statistics.
