Robbery trends in Red Bay have been minimal, with most years reporting zero incidents. The only exceptions were 2011 (2 robberies), 2015 (1 robbery), and 2016 (1 robbery). The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.61 in 2011 and remained at zero for most other years. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics has been negligible, with the highest percentage at 0.05% in 2011, indicating that robbery is not a significant concern for the community.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Red Bay, with annual incidents ranging from 2 to 8 cases. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people has fluctuated, peaking at 2.45 per 1,000 in 2021 (8 cases) and reaching its lowest point of 0.60 per 1,000 in 2015 (2 cases). The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has varied from 0.02% to 0.10%, with the highest percentage in 2021. This suggests that while aggravated assault is the most common violent crime in the city, its impact on state-level statistics remains relatively small.

When examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors, a notable relationship emerges with the city's racial composition. As the percentage of white residents decreased from 98% in 2013 to 87% in 2022, there was a slight increase in the diversity of the population. This demographic shift coincided with some fluctuations in violent crime rates, particularly in aggravated assaults. However, it's important to note that the overall crime numbers remained low, and no strong correlations were found with population density or median rent changes.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it is anticipated that Red Bay will continue to experience low levels of violent crime. The absence of murders is likely to persist, while rape and robbery incidents may remain sporadic and infrequent. Aggravated assaults are expected to continue as the primary form of violent crime, potentially fluctuating between 4 to 8 cases annually, based on historical patterns.

In conclusion, Red Bay has maintained a relatively stable and low level of violent crime over the past decade, despite minor fluctuations in population and demographic composition. The absence of homicides and the infrequent occurrence of robberies are positive indicators for community safety. While aggravated assaults represent the most common violent crime, their numbers remain low in absolute terms. The city's contribution to state crime statistics is minimal across most categories, with the exception of rape, where it has occasionally had a disproportionate impact relative to its population size. Moving forward, the community is expected to continue its trend of low violent crime rates, with aggravated assaults remaining the primary area of concern for local law enforcement.