Robbery trends show a decrease over time, from 2 incidents in 2010 to 1 in 2022, with fluctuations in between. The peak was 10 robberies in 2011, equating to 0.74 per 1,000 residents. By 2022, this rate had decreased to 0.07 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics has generally been low, peaking at 0.23% in 2020 and decreasing to 0.03% in 2022. This suggests that robbery has become less prevalent in the city over time.

Aggravated assault has been the most common violent crime in the city, but it too has shown a downward trend. Incidents decreased from 26 in 2010 to 28 in 2022, with a peak of 50 cases in both 2013 and 2018. When adjusted for population, this represents a slight increase from 1.91 to 2.08 cases per 1,000 residents between 2010 and 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.12% to 0.26% over the period.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As population density increased from 1,688 per square mile in 2014 to 1,796 in 2022, violent crime rates showed some fluctuation but generally decreased. This suggests that other factors beyond population density are influencing crime rates in the city.

The racial composition of the city has seen some changes that correlate with crime trends. The white population decreased from 78% in 2013 to 71% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 1% to 5% over the same period. The black population remained relatively stable, ranging from 15% to 18%. The increase in racial diversity coincides with the overall decrease in violent crime, suggesting that demographic changes have not negatively impacted crime rates.

Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it is forecast that violent crime in Pulaski will continue to decrease slightly over the next five years (up to 2029). The model suggests that by 2029, the city could see approximately 30-35 violent crimes annually, maintaining its downward trajectory. However, this prediction assumes that current socio-economic conditions and law enforcement strategies remain relatively consistent.

In summary, Pulaski has experienced a general decrease in violent crime over the past decade, despite modest population growth and changes in demographic composition. The most significant reductions have been seen in robbery and aggravated assault, while rape incidents have shown a slight increase. Murder rates have remained consistently low. These trends, coupled with the city's small contribution to state crime statistics, suggest that Pulaski has made progress in maintaining public safety. The forecasted continued decrease in violent crime, if realized, would further solidify the city's status as a relatively safe community within Tennessee.