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Violent Crime Trends in Preston, Idaho: A Study of Small City Dynamics
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Preston, located in Idaho, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, alongside steady population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 3 to 8, representing a 166.67% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 6,864 to 7,798, a 13.61% increase.
The murder rate in the city has been relatively low, with only a few occurrences over the years. In 2014, there was one murder, and in 2017, there were three murders, which represented 5.56% and 15% of the state's total murders respectively. In 2019, there was one murder, accounting for 7.14% of the state's murders. When considering the population, the murder rate peaked in 2017 at 0.44 per 1,000 residents. The sporadic nature of these events makes it difficult to establish a clear trend, but it's notable that in most years, the city reported no murders.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, ranging from 0 to 4 cases annually. The highest number of rapes (4) was reported in both 2018 and 2019, representing 0.69% and 0.7% of the state's total rapes respectively. The rape rate per 1,000 residents peaked in 2019 at 0.53. There's been a slight downward trend since then, with 2 reported cases in 2022, or 0.26 per 1,000 residents.
Robbery has been rare in the city, with only three reported incidents over the 13-year period. These occurred in 2017, 2021, and 2022, each representing less than 1% of the state's total robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents has remained extremely low, never exceeding 0.15.
Aggravated assault has shown more variability, ranging from 0 to 5 cases per year. The highest number of aggravated assaults (5) occurred in both 2017 and 2022. In 2017, this represented 0.26% of the state's aggravated assaults, while in 2022, it accounted for 0.21%. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked in 2017 at 0.73 and stood at 0.64 in 2022. There appears to be a slight upward trend in aggravated assaults over the period.
When examining correlations, there's a notable relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,005 per square mile in 2010 to 1,141 in 2022, there was a general upward trend in violent crimes. However, this correlation isn't perfect, as evidenced by fluctuations in crime rates that don't always align with population changes.
The racial composition of the city has remained relatively stable, with the white population decreasing slightly from 96% in 2013 to 91% in 2022. This change coincided with a small increase in the Hispanic population from 2% to 5% over the same period. However, there doesn't appear to be a strong correlation between these demographic shifts and violent crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we might expect a continuation of the slight upward trend in overall violent crimes, particularly in aggravated assaults. However, given the city's small size and the volatility of year-to-year crime statistics, these predictions should be viewed with caution.
In summary, Preston has experienced a gradual increase in violent crimes over the past decade, paralleling its population growth. While murder and robbery remain rare occurrences, there's been more variability in rape and aggravated assault cases. The city's changing demographics and increasing population density appear to have some correlation with these trends, but the relationship is not definitive. As the community continues to grow, maintaining vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial in managing these evolving crime patterns.
