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Violent Crime Trends in Portsmouth, NH: A Decade of Mixed Progress
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Portsmouth, New Hampshire, a historic seaport city with a rich maritime heritage, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in Portsmouth varied, with a notable increase from 28 incidents in 2010 to 40 in 2022, representing a 42.9% increase. During this same period, the city's population grew from 20,961 to 22,138, a 5.6% increase.
Murder rates in Portsmouth have remained exceptionally low, with only two incidents reported over the 13-year period: one in 2010 and another in 2021. This translates to an average of 0.04 murders per 1,000 residents in those years, with most years having zero murders. The city's contribution to the state's murder statistics was significant in the years when murders occurred, accounting for 33.33% of New Hampshire's murders in 2010 and 12.5% in 2021. These figures, while high in percentage, reflect the low overall murder rate in the state rather than indicating a severe crime problem in Portsmouth.
Rape incidents in the city have shown a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 5 reported rapes, which increased to 10 in 2022, representing a 100% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.24 in 2010 to 0.45 in 2022. The city's contribution to state rape statistics fluctuated but showed an overall increase, from 2.63% in 2010 to 4.42% in 2022. A significant spike occurred in 2021 with 26 reported rapes, accounting for 10.7% of the state's total, indicating a year of particular concern for this crime category.
Robbery incidents in Portsmouth have generally decreased over time. From 6 robberies in 2010, the number dropped to 2 in 2022, a 66.7% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.29 in 2010 to 0.09 in 2022. The city's share of state robbery statistics has fluctuated but generally decreased, from 1.81% in 2010 to 1.23% in 2022, suggesting improved safety in this category relative to the rest of the state.
Aggravated assault cases have shown an upward trend. In 2010, there were 16 reported cases, which increased to 28 in 2022, a 75% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.76 in 2010 to 1.26 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has more than doubled, from 2.08% in 2010 to 4.82% in 2022, indicating that this crime category has become a more significant concern for Portsmouth relative to the rest of New Hampshire.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the increase in violent crimes, particularly rape and aggravated assault, and the city's growing population density. As the population density increased from 1,338 per square mile in 2010 to 1,413 in 2022, violent crime rates also trended upward. Additionally, the slight decrease in the white population percentage from 89% in 2013 to 87% in 2022, coupled with small increases in other racial groups, coincides with the overall increase in violent crimes, though causation cannot be inferred from this correlation alone.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, Portsmouth may see a continued increase in violent crimes, particularly in rape and aggravated assault categories. The total number of violent crimes could potentially reach 50-55 incidents per year, with aggravated assaults possibly accounting for 30-35 of these cases. Rape incidents might stabilize around 12-15 per year, while robbery rates are expected to remain low, possibly at 1-3 incidents annually.
In summary, Portsmouth has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. While murder and robbery rates have remained low or decreased, the city has seen significant increases in rape and aggravated assault incidents. These trends, occurring alongside population growth and subtle demographic shifts, suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies. As Portsmouth continues to grow and evolve, addressing these specific violent crime categories will be crucial for maintaining the city's overall safety and quality of life.
