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Violent Crime Trends in Portageville, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations Amidst Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Portageville, located in Missouri, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 0 to 8, representing a significant change. During this same period, the population decreased from 3,609 to 3,248, a decline of about 10%.
The city has not recorded any murders from 2011 to 2022, maintaining a consistent rate of 0 per 1,000 residents and 0% of the state's total murders throughout this period. This absence of murders suggests a relatively safe environment in terms of the most severe form of violent crime.
Rape incidents have shown variability over the years. The city went from no reported rapes in 2011-2017 to a peak of 4 cases in 2018, before stabilizing at 2 cases in 2021 and 2022. This translates to a rate of approximately 0.62 rapes per 1,000 residents in 2022, up from 0 in earlier years. The percentage of state rape cases attributable to the city increased from 0% to 0.09% by 2022, indicating a disproportionate rise compared to state trends.
Robbery rates have remained low, with only sporadic occurrences. The city reported 1 robbery in 2012, 2014, and 2020, representing 0.02%, 0.02%, and 0.03% of state robberies respectively. In 2022, there were no reported robberies, returning to the level seen in most years. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents has thus fluctuated between 0 and 0.29, with no clear trend.
Aggravated assault has shown the most significant increase among violent crimes. From 0 cases in 2011, it rose to a peak of 15 cases in 2019, before decreasing to 6 cases in 2022. This represents a rate of about 1.85 aggravated assaults per 1,000 residents in 2022, up from 0 in 2011. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases increased from 0% to 0.03% over this period, indicating a faster rise than the state average.
There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crime and changes in racial demographics. As the percentage of residents identifying as two or more races increased from 1% in 2013 to 19% in 2022, violent crime rates also rose. Concurrently, the white population percentage decreased from 79% to 69%. However, it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation, and these demographic shifts coincide with other socioeconomic changes that could influence crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on recent trends, it's projected that by 2029, Portageville may see a slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. The number of violent crimes could potentially decrease to around 5-6 per year, with aggravated assaults likely remaining the most common violent offense. Rape incidents are predicted to stabilize at 1-2 cases annually, while robberies may continue to occur sporadically, if at all.
In summary, Portageville has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. While remaining free of murders, the city has seen increases in other forms of violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults and rapes. These changes have occurred against a backdrop of declining population and shifting demographics. As the city moves forward, continued monitoring and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial in maintaining and improving public safety.
