Robbery trends in Port Isabel have been consistently low, with a maximum of 4 incidents recorded in 2010, 2011, and 2012. Since 2017, there have been no reported robberies in the city. This dramatic decrease, coupled with the population decline, suggests a significant improvement in this area of violent crime. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics has been negligible, never exceeding 0.02% during the period studied.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents peaked at 37 in 2016, representing a rate of 4.84 per 1,000 people. However, there has been a general downward trend since then, with 24 cases reported in 2022 (3.99 per 1,000 people). The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.06% in 2015-2017, but decreasing to 0.03% by 2022. This trend suggests that while aggravated assault remains the primary violent crime concern, efforts to address it may be yielding positive results.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 976 per square mile in 2010 to 885 in 2022, violent crime rates showed some fluctuation but generally increased. The Hispanic population, consistently representing over 80% of the city's demographics, has remained stable, showing no strong correlation with crime trends.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential continuation of the recent upward trend in total violent crimes. Based on the data from 2020 to 2022, which showed an increase from 8 to 28 incidents, we might expect to see around 40-50 violent crimes annually by 2029 if current trends persist. However, this prediction should be tempered by the city's historically low crime rates and the potential for community interventions.

In summary, Port Isabel has maintained relatively low violent crime rates across most categories, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The recent uptick in total violent crimes, contrasted with the declining population, suggests a need for focused community safety initiatives. However, the city's consistently low contribution to state crime statistics indicates that it remains a comparatively safe area within Texas, with opportunities for targeted improvements in public safety measures.