Robbery incidents have remained relatively stable, ranging from 3 to 7 cases annually between 2010 and 2018. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents was highest in 2014 at 0.256 and lowest in 2015 at 0.109. The city's contribution to state robbery figures has consistently been low, ranging from 0.03% to 0.07% of the state total. This stability indicates that while robbery is present, it is not escalating and remains a small fraction of state-wide incidents.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city, showing significant fluctuations. In 2010, there were 33 cases (0.22% of state total), which dramatically increased to 95 cases in 2012 (0.68% of state total), before decreasing to 57 cases in 2018 (0.43% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents peaked in 2012 at 3.499 and fell to 2.087 by 2018. This category has had the most substantial impact on overall violent crime trends in the city.

Examining correlations between violent crime and demographic factors reveals some notable patterns. The city has experienced a slight decrease in population density from 961 per square mile in 2015 to 946 in 2022, coinciding with a general downward trend in violent crime since 2014. Additionally, there has been a small but steady increase in racial diversity, with the white population decreasing from 94% in 2015 to 91% in 2022, while the black population increased from 2% to 4% over the same period. This gradual demographic shift appears to have little direct correlation with violent crime rates, which have fluctuated independently of these changes.

Applying predictive models based on the available data, it is projected that violent crime rates in the city will continue to fluctuate but may stabilize or slightly decrease over the next five years (up to 2029). The forecast suggests that aggravated assault will likely remain the predominant form of violent crime, with potential annual variations between 50 to 70 cases. Robbery and rape incidents are expected to remain in the single digits annually, while murders are predicted to remain rare occurrences.

In summary, Plum has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime over the past decade, primarily driven by changes in aggravated assault rates. Despite these variations, the overall violent crime rate remains relatively low compared to many urban areas. The city's changing demographics and slight population decline do not appear to have a strong correlation with crime trends. Moving forward, continued focus on prevention strategies for aggravated assault and maintaining the low rates of other violent crimes will be crucial for preserving public safety in this Pennsylvania community.