Robbery trends in Pickerington show a slight decrease over time, from 9 incidents in 2010 to 9 in 2022, despite reaching a peak of 12 in 2017. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.29 in 2010 to 0.23 in 2022. However, the city's percentage of state robberies increased from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.16% in 2022, suggesting that while local rates have improved, Pickerington's contribution to state robbery statistics has grown.

Aggravated assault cases have shown an overall increase in Pickerington, rising from 5 incidents in 2010 to 9 in 2022, with a peak of 20 in 2017. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.16 in 2010 to 0.23 in 2022. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults rose from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022, peaking at 0.18% in 2017. This trend indicates that aggravated assaults have become a more significant concern for the city over time.

An examination of correlations reveals a relationship between the increase in violent crimes and population growth in Pickerington. As the population density increased from 2,998 per square mile in 2010 to 3,874 in 2022, violent crimes generally trended upward, suggesting that urbanization may be a factor in crime rates. Additionally, there is a notable correlation between the rise in violent crimes and changes in racial demographics. The percentage of white residents decreased from 77% in 2013 to 68% in 2022, while the black population increased from 15% to 19% during the same period. This demographic shift coincides with the overall increase in violent crimes, though it is important to note that correlation does not imply causation.

Applying predictive models based on current trends, it is projected that by 2029, Pickerington may experience a continued moderate increase in overall violent crimes. The total number of violent crimes could potentially reach around 30-35 incidents annually. Specifically, robbery and aggravated assault rates may continue their upward trend, while rape incidents are expected to stabilize or slightly decrease. Murder rates are likely to remain very low, potentially averaging less than one incident per year.

In summary, Pickerington has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape against the backdrop of rapid population growth. While the overall number of violent crimes has increased, the rates for specific crimes like robbery have shown improvements relative to population growth. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has generally increased, particularly for robbery and rape, suggesting that as Pickerington grows, it is becoming a more significant factor in regional crime patterns. These trends underscore the need for targeted crime prevention strategies that address the specific challenges posed by the city's rapid expansion and changing demographics.