Robbery trends in the city show some fluctuation. In 2010, there was one reported robbery, accounting for 0.03% of the state's robberies. However, by 2011 and continuing through 2022, no robberies were reported. This decrease from one case to zero represents a 100% reduction in robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 people dropped from approximately 0.40 in 2010 to 0 in subsequent years, indicating an improvement in this aspect of public safety despite population growth.

Aggravated assault has shown the most variation among violent crimes in Phil Campbell. In 2010, there were no reported cases. This increased to 3 cases in 2011, accounting for 0.03% of the state's aggravated assaults. By 2022, the number decreased to 2 cases, representing 0.02% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0 in 2010 to approximately 1.20 in 2011, then decreased to about 0.70 in 2022. This fluctuation suggests that while aggravated assault remains a concern, it has not grown proportionally with the population increase.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, coincides with a period of population growth and increasing population density. From 2010 to 2022, the population density increased from 581 to 664 people per square mile, potentially contributing to more opportunities for conflict. Additionally, median rent rose significantly from $413 in 2013 to $691 in 2022, which could be indicative of economic pressures that might influence crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends suggests that Phil Campbell may experience a slight increase in violent crimes over the next five years. By 2029, the total number of violent crimes could potentially reach 3 to 4 cases annually, with aggravated assault likely remaining the most prevalent form of violent crime. This projection assumes a continuation of current population growth trends and socioeconomic factors.

In summary, Phil Campbell has maintained relatively low violent crime rates despite population growth. The absence of murders and rapes, coupled with the elimination of robberies since 2011, are positive indicators for public safety. However, the fluctuation in aggravated assaults and the potential for a slight increase in overall violent crimes in the coming years suggest that continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies may be beneficial for maintaining the safety and well-being of Phil Campbell's residents.