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Violent Crime Trends in Pevely, Missouri: A Tale of Fluctuations and Stability
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Pevely, located in Missouri, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, alongside modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 10 to 14, representing a 40% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 8,030 to 8,290, a 3.24% increase.
Analyzing murder trends, Pevely has consistently reported zero murders from 2010 to 2022. This statistic has remained stable despite population changes, maintaining a murder rate of 0 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to the state's murder rate has consistently been 0%, indicating that Pevely has not been a significant factor in Missouri's overall murder statistics.
Rape incidents in the city have shown considerable variation. In 2010, there were 3 reported rapes, which dropped to 0 in 2011 and 2012. The highest number of rapes (9) was reported in 2017, decreasing to 4 in 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, peaking at 1.13 in 2017 and settling at 0.48 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's rape statistics has varied, reaching a high of 0.42% in 2017 and dropping to 0.19% in 2022.
Robbery trends in the city have been relatively low and inconsistent. The number of robberies ranged from 0 to 4 between 2010 and 2022, with the highest count (4) occurring in 2018. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.50 in 2018 and dropped to 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics has remained minimal, never exceeding 0.09% (in 2018) and falling to 0% in 2022.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in Pevely. The number of aggravated assaults increased significantly from 5 in 2010 to a peak of 35 in 2013 and 2020, before decreasing to 10 in 2022. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 residents reached its highest point at 4.31 in 2013 and dropped to 1.21 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics peaked at 0.25% in 2013 and decreased to 0.06% in 2022.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As population density increased from 1,635 per square mile in 2010 to 1,688 in 2022, violent crime rates showed an overall upward trend, despite year-to-year fluctuations. Additionally, there seems to be a slight correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. The percentage of white residents decreased from 96% in 2013 to 91% in 2022, coinciding with a general increase in violent crime, though this correlation is not strong enough to imply causation.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Pevely may experience a slight decrease in overall violent crime rates if current trends continue. The number of violent crimes could potentially decrease to around 10-12 per year, with aggravated assaults likely remaining the most common violent offense.
In summary, Pevely has faced challenges with violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults, over the past decade. While murder rates have remained at zero, other violent crimes have fluctuated. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has generally been low, but significant enough to warrant continued attention to public safety measures. The relationship between population density, demographic changes, and crime rates suggests that ongoing monitoring and targeted community-based interventions could be beneficial in maintaining and improving public safety in Pevely.
