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Violent Crime Trends in Pauls Valley, Oklahoma: A Study of Stability Amidst Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Pauls Valley, Oklahoma presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in this small city showed minimal change, decreasing slightly from 34 to 33, a reduction of 2.94%. This occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the number of residents falling from 10,360 to 9,532, an 8.00% decrease over the same period.
The murder rate in Pauls Valley has remained remarkably low. Only one murder was reported in 2020, accounting for 0.42% of the state's murders that year. This single incident translated to a rate of 0.099 murders per 1,000 people in 2020. The absence of murders in other years suggests this was an isolated occurrence rather than a trend.
Rape incidents in Pauls Valley have fluctuated over the years. The number of reported cases rose from 3 in 2010 to a peak of 9 in 2015, before decreasing to 6 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.29 in 2010 to 0.89 in 2015, then fell to 0.63 in 2022. The city's contribution to state rape cases varied, reaching a high of 1.84% in 2013 and dropping to 0.33% by 2022. This indicates that while the city has experienced some spikes in rape cases, it has generally maintained a lower proportion of the state's total compared to its population share.
Robbery rates in Pauls Valley have remained relatively low. The highest number of robberies recorded was 5 in 2010, which decreased to 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.48 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies peaked at 0.25% in 2021 before dropping to 0% in 2022, indicating a significant improvement in this area of violent crime.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Pauls Valley. The number of cases fluctuated from 26 in 2010 to a peak of 35 in 2021, before decreasing to 27 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 2.51 in 2010 to 3.61 in 2021, then decreased to 2.83 in 2022. The city's share of state aggravated assaults ranged from 0.12% to 0.33% over the period, suggesting that while it remains a concern, the city's contribution to state totals has remained relatively stable.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates in Pauls Valley. As the population density decreased from 1,244 per square mile in 2010 to 1,145 in 2022, there was a general trend of decreasing violent crime, though with some fluctuations. Additionally, there seems to be a weak correlation between the increase in median rent (from $509 in 2013 to $812 in 2022) and the overall decrease in violent crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on historical data and current trajectories, we might expect: 1) Murder rates to remain very low, potentially with years of zero incidents interspersed with rare occurrences. 2) Rape cases to stabilize around 5-7 per year, with a rate of approximately 0.6 per 1,000 people. 3) Robbery rates to remain low, likely between 0-2 cases per year. 4) Aggravated assaults to continue as the primary violent crime concern, potentially fluctuating between 25-30 cases per year.
In summary, Pauls Valley has experienced a general decline in violent crime rates from 2010 to 2022, particularly in robberies and murders. While rape and aggravated assault rates have fluctuated, they show signs of stabilization in recent years. The city's contribution to state crime statistics remains relatively small, consistent with its population size. The relationship between decreasing population density and declining crime rates suggests that community dynamics may play a role in crime prevention.
