Robbery cases have shown a positive downward trend. In 2010, there were 278 robberies, accounting for 3.34% of the state's total. This number decreased to 85 in 2022, representing 3.53% of state robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 people fell from 3.98 in 2010 to 1.23 in 2022, a 69% decrease. This significant reduction indicates improved safety in public spaces and commercial areas.

Aggravated assault incidents have fluctuated but shown an overall decrease. In 2010, there were 345 cases, representing 4% of the state's total. By 2022, this number decreased to 265, accounting for 4.68% of state assaults. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 4.94 in 2010 to 3.83 in 2022, a 22.5% decrease. While this reduction is positive, the increase in the city's share of state assaults suggests that progress in this area may be lagging behind state-wide improvements.

Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. The city's population density, which peaked at 22,827 people per square mile in 2014 and decreased to 22,062 by 2022, shows a moderate negative correlation with violent crime rates. This suggests that as the population density decreased slightly, there was a corresponding decrease in violent crime. Additionally, the median rent increased from $1,078 in 2013 to $1,316 in 2022, showing a weak negative correlation with violent crime rates, potentially indicating that improved housing conditions may contribute to reduced crime.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend in violent crime. The model predicts that total violent crimes could decrease to approximately 320 incidents per year by 2029, representing a further 14.7% reduction from 2022 levels. However, the rate of decrease is expected to slow, and certain categories like rape may continue to pose challenges if current trends persist.

In summary, Passaic has made significant strides in reducing overall violent crime, particularly in areas of murder and robbery. However, the increase in rape incidents and the city's growing share of state-wide aggravated assaults highlight areas requiring focused intervention. The correlation between decreasing population density and reduced crime rates, coupled with rising median rents, suggests that urban development and housing policies may play a role in further crime reduction efforts. As the city moves forward, maintaining these positive trends while addressing persistent challenges will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.