Robbery trends in Pasadena have shown a positive decline. In 2010, there were 189 robberies, which decreased to 117 in 2022, a 38.1% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people also decreased from 1.38 in 2010 to 0.87 in 2022, a 36.9% drop. The city's share of state robberies remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.28% and 0.4% over the years. This indicates a significant improvement in robbery rates within the city, both in absolute numbers and relative to the population.

Aggravated assault cases in Pasadena have shown an overall increase. In 2010, there were 341 cases, which rose to 359 in 2022, a 5.3% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 2.48 in 2010 to 2.67 in 2022, a 7.7% rise. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults fluctuated, peaking at 0.52% in 2019 and settling at 0.35% in 2022. This suggests that aggravated assaults have become more prevalent in the city, both in absolute terms and relative to the population.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate positive correlation between the increase in median rent and the rise in aggravated assaults. As median rent increased from $1,356 in 2013 to $1,985 in 2022 (a 46.4% increase), aggravated assaults also saw an overall upward trend. Additionally, there seems to be a weak negative correlation between the Asian population percentage and violent crime rates. As the Asian population increased from 13% in 2013 to 17% in 2022, there was a slight overall decrease in total violent crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. Based on the current trends, it's projected that murders may remain relatively stable at around 6-8 per year, rape incidents might continue to decrease to approximately 20-25 cases annually, robberies could further decline to about 100-110 incidents per year, while aggravated assaults may plateau around 350-370 cases annually.

In conclusion, Pasadena has experienced mixed trends in violent crime over the past decade. While robberies have significantly decreased, aggravated assaults have risen, and murder rates have shown concerning fluctuations. The city has made progress in certain areas of violent crime reduction, but challenges remain, particularly in addressing aggravated assaults and stabilizing murder rates. These trends, coupled with demographic changes and rising housing costs, present a complex picture of public safety in Pasadena that will require ongoing attention and targeted strategies to address effectively in the coming years.