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Violent Crime Trends in Pana, Illinois: A Small Town's Struggle with Aggravated Assault
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Pana, Illinois, a small urban area with a population of 6,658 as of 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime over the years. From 2010 to 2017, the total number of violent crimes increased from 3 to 11, representing a 266.67% increase. During this same period, the population decreased from 7,702 to 7,273, a 5.57% decline, indicating a disproportionate rise in violent crime relative to population changes.
The murder rate in the city has remained relatively low, with only one reported case in 2013. This single incident represented 0.17% of the state's murders that year. With a population of 7,401 in 2013, this translates to a murder rate of 0.14 per 1,000 residents. In all other reported years, there were no murders, resulting in a rate of 0 per 1,000 residents. The isolated nature of this event suggests it was an anomaly rather than indicative of a broader trend.
Rape incidents have shown significant variability. In 2016, there were 6 reported cases, accounting for 0.17% of the state's total. This spike translates to a rate of 0.81 rapes per 1,000 residents, based on the population of 7,440 that year. However, in other years with available data (2010-2014 and 2017), no rapes were reported, indicating an inconsistent pattern. The 2016 spike may warrant further investigation into local factors that could have contributed to this temporary increase.
Robbery trends have remained relatively stable and low. From 2010 to 2017, there were only two reported robberies: one in 2014 and one in 2017. These incidents represented 0.01% of the state's robberies in their respective years. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents was 0.13 in 2014 and 0.14 in 2017, reflecting the slight population decrease. The low and stable robbery rate suggests that property-related violent crime is not a significant concern in the city.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of cases fluctuated between 3 and 10 from 2010 to 2017. The highest number was recorded in 2013 with 10 cases, representing 0.1% of the state's total. This translates to a rate of 1.35 aggravated assaults per 1,000 residents. The rate increased from 0.39 per 1,000 in 2010 to 1.38 per 1,000 in 2017, indicating a significant upward trend despite population decline.
There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults, and the slight decrease in population density. As the population density decreased from 1,997 per square mile in 2010 to 1,886 per square mile in 2017, violent crime rates increased. This could suggest that factors associated with population decline, such as economic challenges or social changes, might be influencing crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, the city may see a continued slight increase in violent crime rates, particularly in aggravated assaults, if current trends persist. The total number of violent crimes could potentially reach 15-18 per year, with aggravated assaults potentially accounting for 12-15 of these incidents.
In summary, Pana has experienced a concerning increase in violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults, despite a declining population. While murder and robbery rates remain low, the spike in rape cases in 2016 and the consistent rise in aggravated assaults warrant attention. These trends, coupled with the demographic changes, suggest a need for targeted community interventions and law enforcement strategies to address the root causes of violence in the city.
