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Violent Crime Trends in Ozark, Missouri: A Decade of Change Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Ozark, located in Missouri, has experienced notable changes in violent crime trends alongside significant population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a peak of 60 incidents in 2019 and a recent decrease to 24 incidents in 2022, representing a 60% reduction from the peak. During this same period, the population grew from 24,213 in 2010 to 30,084 in 2022, an increase of approximately 24.2%.
Examining murder trends, the city has maintained a remarkably low rate, with only two recorded incidents over the 13-year period - one in 2014 and another in 2022. This translates to an average of 0.033 murders per 1,000 people in those years, significantly lower than national averages. The percentage of state murders attributable to Ozark remained minimal, peaking at 0.3% in 2014 and 0.19% in 2022. These figures suggest that despite population growth, the city has managed to keep homicide rates exceptionally low.
Rape incidents have shown more variability. The number of reported rapes increased from 2 in 2010 to a high of 10 in 2017, before decreasing to 8 in 2022. This translates to a rate change from 0.083 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.266 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state rape statistics has fluctuated, ranging from 0.09% to 0.47%, with the highest percentage occurring in 2017. This trend indicates a growing concern that requires attention from local law enforcement and community support services.
Robbery rates in the city have remained relatively stable, with a slight increase over time. The number of robberies rose from 4 in 2010 to 7 in 2019, before decreasing to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.249 in 2019 and dropped to 0.033 in 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics has generally been low, ranging from 0.02% to 0.17%, with the highest percentage in 2019. This suggests that while robbery is not a major concern, vigilance is still necessary to maintain the recent low rates.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of incidents increased from 17 in 2010 to a peak of 48 in 2019, before decreasing to 14 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.702 in 2010 to 1.708 in 2019, then fell to 0.465 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has fluctuated between 0.08% and 0.31%, with the highest percentage in 2019. This trend indicates that while there have been periods of concern, recent efforts may have been effective in reducing assault rates.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate positive relationship between population density and violent crime rates, particularly evident in the years 2017-2020 when both metrics peaked. The racial distribution has remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently representing over 90% of residents, showing no strong correlation with crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. This projection is based on the recent downward trend observed from 2019 to 2022, coupled with ongoing population growth. However, this forecast assumes that current law enforcement strategies and community factors remain consistent.
In summary, Ozark has demonstrated resilience in managing violent crime rates despite significant population growth. The most critical findings include the consistently low murder rate, fluctuating but concerning rape statistics, and the recent substantial decrease in aggravated assaults. These trends suggest that while the city has made progress in certain areas of violent crime prevention, continued focus on community safety initiatives and law enforcement strategies will be crucial to maintain and improve upon these results in the coming years.
