Robbery trends have been more stable. The number of robberies increased from no reported cases in 2010 to 5 in 2022. When adjusted for population, this represents an increase from 0 to 0.19 robberies per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics has remained relatively low, increasing slightly from 0% in 2010 to 0.38% in 2022.

Aggravated assault, the most common violent crime in the city, has shown a decreasing trend. The number of cases dropped from 56 in 2010 to 40 in 2022, a 28.57% decrease. When adjusted for population, this represents a decrease from 2.34 to 1.55 assaults per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state aggravated assault cases has also decreased from 0.93% in 2010 to 0.35% in 2022, indicating improvement relative to the rest of Alabama.

There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 751 people per square mile in 2010 to 811 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate decreased. This suggests that the city has managed to maintain public safety despite increasing urbanization.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall violent crime rates if current trends persist. However, the recent uptick in rape cases is concerning and may require targeted interventions to reverse the trend.

In conclusion, Oxford has made significant strides in reducing violent crime over the past decade, particularly in the areas of murder and aggravated assault. However, the increase in rape cases presents a challenge that needs addressing. The city's ability to maintain decreasing crime rates while experiencing population growth is commendable and suggests effective law enforcement and community strategies. Moving forward, focused efforts on sexual assault prevention and continued vigilance in other crime categories will be crucial to maintaining and improving public safety in Oxford.