Robbery incidents have fluctuated but shown an overall decrease. From 9 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 8 in 2022, with a low of 4 cases in 2014 and 2020. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.199 in 2010 to 0.157 in 2022. However, the city's percentage of state robberies increased from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.28% in 2022, suggesting that while robberies decreased in the city, they decreased at a slower rate compared to the state average.

Aggravated assault cases have seen a significant decline. From 58 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 15 in 2022, a 74.1% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 1.286 in 2010 to 0.294 in 2022. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults also decreased from 0.16% in 2010 to 0.12% in 2022, indicating that the city outperformed the state in reducing aggravated assaults.

There appears to be a strong correlation between the decrease in violent crimes and the increase in population density. As the population density increased from 2,904 per square mile in 2010 to 3,286 in 2022, total violent crimes decreased. This suggests that the growing urbanization of the area might have contributed to improved safety measures and community vigilance.

The racial composition of the city has also shifted during this period, with the white population decreasing from 70% in 2013 to 63% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 16% to 22%. This demographic shift coincides with the overall decrease in violent crimes, suggesting that increasing diversity has not negatively impacted crime rates.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), Oviedo may see: 1. A continued low murder rate, likely remaining close to zero incidents per year. 2. A potential increase in rape cases to around 15-18 per year if current trends persist. 3. Robbery cases may stabilize around 7-9 incidents annually. 4. Aggravated assaults could further decrease to about 10-12 cases per year.

In summary, Oviedo has made significant strides in reducing overall violent crime, particularly in aggravated assaults and maintaining a low murder rate. However, the increase in rape cases remains a concern that warrants attention. The city's growing population and increasing diversity appear to correlate with improved safety, challenging assumptions about urbanization and crime. As Oviedo continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends while addressing areas of concern will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.