Robbery trends have fluctuated but remain relatively low. From 1 incident in 2010, robberies peaked at 5 in 2016 before settling at 4 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.06 in 2010 to 0.26 in 2022. The city's percentage of state robberies rose from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.55% in 2022, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to state levels.

Aggravated assault, the most common violent crime in the city, saw an overall increase from 28 cases in 2010 to 31 in 2022, a 10.7% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 1.82 in 2010 to 2.02 in 2022. However, the city's share of state aggravated assaults decreased from 0.45% in 2010 to 0.41% in 2022, suggesting that this increase was less pronounced than the state average.

A strong correlation exists between the city's racial composition and violent crime trends. As the white population percentage slightly decreased from 90% in 2013 to 89% in 2022, there was a corresponding increase in violent crimes. This shift, although minor, coincides with the overall rise in violent crime incidents.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual increase in overall violent crimes. Based on the current trajectory, total violent crimes could potentially reach around 60-65 incidents annually by 2029, with rape and aggravated assault likely to show the most significant increases.

In summary, Ottawa has experienced a concerning uptick in violent crimes, particularly in rape and aggravated assault, despite its relatively stable population. The disproportionate increase in the city's share of state rape and robbery cases is particularly noteworthy. While murder rates remain exceptionally low, the overall trend suggests a need for targeted interventions to address the rising violent crime rates, especially considering the forecasted increases in the coming years.