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Violent Crime Trends in Oswego, Kansas: A Decade of Consistently Low Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Oswego, located in Kansas, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the past decade, this small community has experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, ranging from a peak of 4 incidents in 2014 to years with no reported violent crimes. Concurrently, the population has shown a slight decline, decreasing from 2,455 in 2010 to 2,190 in 2022, a reduction of approximately 10.8%.
The murder rate in Oswego has remained consistently at zero throughout the recorded period from 2011 to 2021. This stability is particularly noteworthy given the population fluctuations. The absence of murders translates to a rate of 0 per 1,000 people, which has held steady over time. Additionally, the city has consistently accounted for 0% of the state's murder cases, indicating a remarkably safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. Only one case was reported in 2013, representing 0.14% of the state's total rape cases for that year. This translates to a rate of approximately 0.45 per 1,000 people based on the 2013 population. In all other years, there were no reported rape cases, showcasing an overall low incidence of this crime in the community.
Robbery trends in Oswego have been minimal, with only one incident reported in 2020. This single case accounted for 0.4% of the state's total robberies that year, resulting in a rate of about 0.5 robberies per 1,000 residents. The rarity of robbery cases underscores the generally low crime environment in the city.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city, though still occurring at low rates. The highest number of aggravated assaults was recorded in 2014 with 4 incidents, accounting for 0.14% of the state's total. This translates to approximately 1.65 assaults per 1,000 residents for that year. In other years, the number of aggravated assaults ranged from 0 to 1, with the most recent data from 2021 showing 1 incident, or about 0.49 per 1,000 residents.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,020 per square mile in 2010 to 910 in 2022, there was a slight overall reduction in violent crime incidents. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest a causal relationship.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it's anticipated that Oswego will continue to experience low levels of violent crime. The sporadic nature of incidents suggests that years with zero reported violent crimes may alternate with years seeing 1-2 incidents, primarily in the category of aggravated assault. However, given the small population and low baseline of crime, significant increases are unlikely barring major demographic or economic shifts.
In summary, Oswego demonstrates a pattern of very low violent crime rates across all categories. The most significant finding is the consistent absence of murders and the infrequent occurrence of other violent crimes. This trend, coupled with the slight population decline, suggests that Oswego maintains a relatively safe environment for its residents, with violent crime rates well below national averages for similarly sized communities.
