Robbery trends show a general decline over the years. In 2013, there were 8 robberies, representing 0.02% of the state's total. This number fluctuated over the years, reaching a low of 1 in 2014 and peaking again at 6 in 2017. By 2022, robberies had decreased to 2 incidents, accounting for less than 0.01% of California's total. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.71 in 2013 to 0.2 in 2022, indicating an overall improvement in this category of violent crime.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. In 2013, there were 189 incidents, accounting for 0.27% of the state's total. This number dramatically decreased to 5 in 2014 but showed fluctuations in subsequent years. By 2022, there were 31 aggravated assaults, representing 0.03% of California's total. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 16.82 in 2013 to 3.09 in 2022, signifying a substantial improvement despite remaining the most common violent crime in the city.

There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 6,270 per square mile in 2013 to 5,601 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in violent crimes. Additionally, the Hispanic population, which has consistently been the majority (ranging from 92% to 95% of the total population), remained stable while crime rates fluctuated, suggesting no direct correlation between ethnic composition and crime rates in this case.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued overall decrease in violent crimes if current trends persist. The model suggests that aggravated assaults may stabilize around 25-30 incidents per year, while robberies and rapes are likely to remain in the low single digits. Murders are predicted to remain rare events, possibly occurring once every few years.

In summary, Orange Cove has shown a significant overall reduction in violent crime from 2013 to 2022, despite some fluctuations. The most notable improvements have been in aggravated assaults and robberies. While the city has faced challenges, particularly with a spike in murders in 2017, the general trend suggests an improving safety situation. The relationship between decreasing population density and reduced crime rates is an interesting aspect that may warrant further attention in urban planning and community safety strategies.