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Violent Crime Trends in Ontario, Ohio: A Decade of Improvement Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Ontario, located in Ohio, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2021, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, with the number ranging from a high of 12 in 2010 and 2012 to a low of 1 in 2020. Over this period, the population grew from 8,931 in 2010 to 9,724 in 2022, representing an 8.9% increase.
Examining murder trends, Ontario has maintained a consistent record of zero murders from 2010 to 2021. This steady state persists despite population growth, resulting in a consistent murder rate of 0 per 1,000 people throughout the period. The city's contribution to the state's murder statistics has remained at 0% during this time, indicating a remarkably safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape incidents in the city have shown variability over the years. The highest number of reported rapes was 4 in 2010, decreasing to 0 in several years, including 2012, 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2021. The rape rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.45 in 2010 and dropped to 0 in the aforementioned years. The city's contribution to state rape statistics fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.15% in 2010 and falling to 0% in recent years. This trend suggests an overall improvement in this category of violent crime.
Robbery incidents have shown a general declining trend. The highest number of robberies was 7 in 2017, decreasing to 0 in 2019 and 2021. The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.79 in 2017 and fell to 0 in 2019 and 2021. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics varied, with a maximum of 0.07% in 2017 and a minimum of 0% in 2019 and 2021. This downward trend in robberies is a positive indicator for public safety.
Aggravated assault cases have fluctuated over the years. The highest number was 6 in 2012, dropping to 0 in 2014 and 2015, and then rising again to 5 in 2019. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people reached a maximum of 0.67 in 2012 and a minimum of 0 in 2014, 2015, and 2020. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics varied, peaking at 0.06% in 2012 and falling to 0% in several years. This fluctuation suggests no clear long-term trend in aggravated assaults.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak negative correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 807 per square mile in 2010 to 878 in 2022, the overall violent crime incidents showed a slight downward trend. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest a causal relationship.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the historical data and current trends, we can anticipate: 1. The murder rate is likely to remain at or very close to zero, continuing the city's strong record in this area. 2. Rape incidents may continue to fluctuate but are expected to remain low, potentially averaging 1-2 cases per year. 3. Robbery rates are predicted to stay low, possibly averaging 1-3 incidents annually. 4. Aggravated assaults may continue to show variability, with an estimated range of 2-5 cases per year.
In summary, Ontario has demonstrated a generally positive trend in violent crime over the past decade. The consistent absence of murders, declining robbery rates, and fluctuating but relatively low numbers of rapes and aggravated assaults paint a picture of a community that maintains a good level of public safety. As the city continues to grow, maintaining these low crime rates will be crucial for the well-being and security of its residents.
