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Violent Crime Trends in Olmos Park: A Small Texas City's Remarkably Low Crime Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Olmos Park, located in Texas, is a small community with a unique profile of violent crime trends. Over the past decade, from 2013 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in the city has fluctuated, ranging from 0 to 2 incidents per year. During this same period, the population has grown from 3,769 in 2013 to 4,202 in 2022, representing an 11.5% increase.
Murder rates in Olmos Park have remained consistently at zero throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This stability is particularly noteworthy given the population growth. The murder rate per 1,000 people has thus remained at 0, and the city has not contributed to the state's murder statistics during this time.
Rape incidents in the city have also been consistently reported as zero from 2010 to 2022, with the exception of 2013 where data was not available. This trend has held steady despite population growth, maintaining a rate of 0 per 1,000 residents and contributing 0% to the state's rape statistics throughout the observed period.
Robbery trends in Olmos Park show some variation over time. There was one robbery reported in 2010 and another in 2013. After several years without incidents, another robbery was reported in 2022. Despite these occurrences, the robbery rate remains extremely low, with the 2022 incident representing approximately 0.24 robberies per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to the state's robbery statistics is minimal, accounting for 0.01% of Texas robberies in 2022.
Aggravated assault in the city shows a slight upward trend in recent years. From 2010 to 2017, there were no reported cases. However, one incident was reported each year from 2018 to 2021, and this continued in 2022. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 residents in 2022 was approximately 0.24. Despite this increase, the city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics remains at 0% due to the low absolute numbers.
When examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, there appears to be a weak positive correlation between population growth and the slight increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, in recent years. However, the overall numbers remain too low to draw strong conclusions. There does not appear to be a significant correlation between violent crime trends and changes in racial distribution or median rent in the city.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests that the city may continue to see low but potentially slightly increasing numbers of violent crimes, particularly in the categories of robbery and aggravated assault. However, given the small numbers involved, even minor fluctuations can appear as significant percentage changes.
In summary, Olmos Park has maintained exceptionally low violent crime rates across all categories over the past decade, despite moderate population growth. The most notable trend has been the emergence of consistent, albeit very low, numbers of aggravated assaults in recent years. While this trend warrants attention, the overall violent crime picture in Olmos Park remains highly favorable compared to many other urban areas.
