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Violent Crime Trends in Oliver Springs: A Decade of Fluctuation and Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Oliver Springs, located in Tennessee, is a small community with a population of 6,656 as of 2022. Over the past decade, the city has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates alongside changes in population. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes varied, peaking at 15 incidents in 2013 and dropping to as low as 1 incident in 2014. The population grew from 5,514 in 2010 to 6,656 in 2022, representing a 20.7% increase over this period.
Murder trends in the city have been sporadic. The city reported no murders for most years, with only three instances of a single murder occurring in 2011, 2021, and 2022. When murders did occur, they represented a significant percentage of the state's total due to the city's small size. For instance, in 2021 and 2022, each murder accounted for 0.21% and 0.23% of the state's total murders, respectively. The murder rate per 1,000 people remained very low, reaching a maximum of 0.15 per 1,000 in 2022.
Rape incidents in the city have been infrequent, with only three years reporting cases: 2 cases in 2010 (0.36 per 1,000 people), 2 in 2013 (0.31 per 1,000), and 1 in 2016 (0.14 per 1,000). The percentage of state rape cases attributed to the city ranged from 0.06% to 0.13% in these years. The absence of reported rapes in most years suggests either effective prevention or potential underreporting issues.
Robbery trends show a similar pattern of infrequency. The city experienced its highest number of robberies in 2011 with 4 cases (0.70 per 1,000 people), representing 0.05% of the state's robberies that year. Subsequent years saw either no robberies or isolated incidents, with the most recent reported case in 2020 (1 robbery, 0.15 per 1,000 people, 0.03% of state total).
Aggravated assault has been the most consistent form of violent crime in the city. The number of cases fluctuated over the years, with a high of 12 cases in 2013 (1.88 per 1,000 people) and a low of 0 cases in 2014. The most recent data from 2022 shows 6 aggravated assaults (0.90 per 1,000 people), representing 0.03% of the state's total. The trend shows a general decrease in aggravated assaults per capita over time, despite population growth.
There appears to be a weak correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 954 per square mile in 2010 to 1,152 in 2022, violent crime rates did not show a consistent pattern of increase or decrease, suggesting other factors may have more significant influences on crime rates in this small community.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that violent crime rates in Oliver Springs will likely remain low and relatively stable over the next five years (up to 2029). The sporadic nature of serious crimes like murder and rape is expected to continue, with years of no incidents interspersed with occasional occurrences. Aggravated assault is predicted to remain the most common violent crime, potentially fluctuating between 2 to 8 cases annually.
In summary, Oliver Springs has maintained relatively low violent crime rates despite population growth over the past decade. The most significant trend has been the fluctuation in aggravated assaults, while other violent crimes have remained infrequent. The city's small size means that even single incidents can represent a notable percentage of state totals for specific crimes. Moving forward, maintaining community safety initiatives and addressing any underlying factors contributing to aggravated assaults will be crucial for Oliver Springs to continue its overall trend of low violent crime rates.
