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Violent Crime Trends in Ohatchee, Alabama: Small Town Faces Rising Aggravated Assault Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Ohatchee, located in Alabama, presents an interesting case study for examining violent crime trends in a small community. With a population of 4,505 in 2022 and covering an area of 5.88 square miles, this town has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates over the years. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 1 to 4, representing a 300% increase. During the same period, the population grew from 4,310 to 4,505, a modest increase of 4.5%.
The murder rate in Ohatchee has remained consistently at zero throughout the recorded period from 2010 to 2022. This stability in the absence of murders is noteworthy, especially considering the small population size. The murder rate per 1,000 people has consequently remained at 0, and the town has not contributed to the state's murder statistics during this time.
Rape incidents in the city were non-existent from 2010 to 2018. However, in 2022, there was one reported rape case, marking a significant change. This single incident translates to a rate of 0.22 rapes per 1,000 people in 2022. More notably, this case represented 0.11% of the state's total rape cases for that year, a considerable figure for a town of this size.
Robbery trends in the city have been sporadic. In 2010 and from 2014 to 2018, there were no reported robberies. However, in 2016, there was one robbery incident, which accounted for 0.03% of the state's robberies that year. This single incident translated to a rate of 0.21 robberies per 1,000 people in 2016. By 2022, the robbery count had returned to zero.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. In 2010, there was one case, representing 0.02% of the state's total. This number dropped to zero in 2014 but rose again to one in 2017, two in 2018, and three in 2022. The rate of aggravated assaults per 1,000 people increased from 0.23 in 2010 to 0.67 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault cases also increased, reaching 0.03% in 2022.
There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crimes and the slight growth in population density, which rose from 733 people per square mile in 2010 to 766 in 2022. Additionally, there's a noticeable relationship between the rise in violent crimes and the minor shifts in racial demographics. The white population decreased slightly from 96% in 2013 to 93% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 0% to 4% during the same period.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Ohatchee may see a further increase in violent crimes, potentially reaching 6-7 incidents annually. Aggravated assaults are likely to continue being the primary contributor to this increase.
In summary, Ohatchee has experienced a notable increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, over the past decade. While the absolute numbers remain low, the percentage increase is significant for a small town. The correlation with population growth and subtle demographic shifts suggests that these factors may play a role in the changing crime landscape of Ohatchee.
