Robbery rates in the city have been minimal. Only one incident was reported in 2011, representing 0.01% of the state's total robberies that year. With a population of 4,374 in 2011, this equated to 0.23 robberies per 1,000 residents. In all other years examined, no robberies were reported, indicating an extremely low risk of robbery in the city.

Aggravated assault has shown a declining trend. In 2010, there were 5 cases (1.14 per 1,000 residents), representing 0.02% of the state's total. This peaked in 2011 with 8 cases (1.83 per 1,000 residents), accounting for 0.03% of the state's total. By 2022, there were no reported aggravated assaults, showing a significant improvement in this category of violent crime.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the declining population density and the reduction in violent crimes. The population density decreased from 876 people per square mile in 2010 to 835 in 2022, coinciding with the overall reduction in violent crimes. Additionally, the racial composition has remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently representing around 90% of the total, which doesn't seem to correlate strongly with crime trends.

Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city may continue to see low levels of violent crime. The number of violent crimes could potentially stabilize at 1-2 incidents per year, primarily consisting of isolated cases of rape or aggravated assault. Murder and robbery rates are expected to remain at or near zero.

In summary, Oglesby has demonstrated a positive trend in reducing violent crime over the past decade. The most significant improvements have been in aggravated assault and robbery rates, while rape incidents, though low, remain a concern. The city's small size and stable demographic composition likely contribute to its overall low crime rates, making it a relatively safe community within Illinois.