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Violent Crime Trends in Ogdensburg: Analyzing Patterns Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Ogdensburg, located in New York State, has experienced significant changes in its violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in the city fluctuated, with a notable increase from 31 incidents in 2010 to 30 in 2022, representing a slight decrease of 3.23%. During this same period, the city's population declined from 11,367 in 2010 to 9,902 in 2022, a decrease of 12.89%.
Murder rates in the city have shown volatility over the years. In 2010, there was one murder, followed by years with no reported murders until 2014 when another occurred. The most recent data from 2022 shows one murder, maintaining a rate of approximately 0.1 per 1,000 residents. The percentage of state murders attributed to Ogdensburg has fluctuated, reaching 0.22% in 2017 and 2018, and most recently 0.15% in 2022. This suggests that while infrequent, murders in the city have a noticeable impact on state statistics given its small population.
Rape incidents have shown a concerning upward trend. From 4 reported cases in 2010, the number rose to 11 in 2021, before decreasing to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.35 in 2010 to 1.08 in 2021, then dropped to 0.30 in 2022. The city's contribution to state rape statistics has also grown, from 0.22% in 2010 to 0.38% in 2021, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to state trends.
Robbery trends have been inconsistent. The city experienced a peak of 11 robberies in 2018, up from 3 in 2010. However, by 2022, the number decreased to 4. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.26 in 2010 to 1.02 in 2018, before settling at 0.40 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies has remained relatively low but variable, ranging from 0.01% to 0.07% over the years.
Aggravated assaults have shown the most significant fluctuations among violent crimes. From 23 incidents in 2010, the number peaked at 34 in 2021 before decreasing to 22 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 2.02 in 2010 to 3.35 in 2021, then dropped to 2.22 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assaults has varied, reaching a high of 0.08% in 2015, 2019, and 2021.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 2,293 per square mile in 2010 to 1,998 in 2022, violent crime rates generally increased. This suggests that factors other than population density may be influencing crime rates in the city.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now in 2024), we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. This prediction is based on the recent downward trend observed in 2022 across most categories of violent crime. However, given the historical volatility, periodic spikes in specific crime categories may still occur.
In summary, Ogdensburg has experienced complex and varying trends in violent crime over the past decade. While murder rates have remained relatively stable but infrequent, rape and aggravated assault have shown more significant fluctuations. The inverse relationship between population density and crime rates suggests that demographic shifts and other socioeconomic factors may be playing a crucial role in shaping the city's crime landscape. As the city continues to evolve, ongoing monitoring and adaptive crime prevention strategies will be essential to address these changing dynamics and improve public safety in Ogdensburg.
